News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Friday, August 5, 2016

Trump 49, Hillary 33, July 25-27, 2016 poll of registered Tennessee voters, icitizen online poll. Among independent voters, Trump 40, Hillary 23

Trump 49
Hillary 33

Independent voters
Trump 40
Hillary 23

July 25-27, 2016 poll, 531 registered Tennessee voters, online survey, 45 male, 55 female, 79 White, 15 Black, 3 Hispanic Latino. 95% say they'll "likely" vote in Nov. (p. 2). D29-R38-Ind 24 (p. 15)

8/2/16, "Campaign watch: New poll shows Trump with commanding lead over Clinton in Tennessee," Nashville Business Journal, Will Racke 

"If the 2016 presidential election were held today, Republican nominee Donald Trump would easily best his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Tennessee, according to a new poll of registered voters. 

Nashville-based civic information company icitizen released Tuesday the results of its poll of 531 registered Tennessee voters, and the numbers show a clear statewide preference for Trump in a head-to-head contest against Clinton. 

In a survey conducted from July 25-27 (during the Democratic National Convention), 49 percent of respondents favored Trump compared to 33 percent in favor of Clinton. Eighteen percent said they were undecided.

The poll showed strong party support for both candidates, but Trump also outpaced Clinton in this area: 88 percent of Tennessee Republicans supported their party's nominee, compared to 80 percent support among Tennessee Democrats for the former secretary of state.

Mark Keida, icitizen's vice president of polling and research, said the poll's biggest takeaway is that Trump has strengthened his support among Republican voters in Tennessee, with 32 percent of supporters saying they "strongly" favor Trump compared to 23 percent of Democratic voters favoring Clinton with the same intensity.

"He's consolidating the Republican base, and I think that's the biggest story as to why he's ahead [in Tennessee]," Keida said.

Independents broke heavily for Trump. The real estate tycoon captured non-affiliated respondents by a 17 point margin — 40 percent to Clinton's 23 percent.

The icitizen poll results were similar to the Nashville Business Journal's unscientific poll of online readers in a recent Business Pulse question, which ran from Friday until Tuesday morning. In a two-horse presidential race, 53 percent of NBJ readers favored Trump compared to 39 percent support for Clinton. Eight percent said they would vote for neither candidate. 

Demographically, Trump drew support in Tennessee from a similar cross section of voters as his nationwide base. His backers skewed white and male, but also included a majority of college-educated and high-income voters, two groups that favor Clinton in national polling, according to icitizen.

"In Tennessee, those two groups are much more Republican than average in other states," Keida explained.

Nationally, Clinton is leading Trump by 46.4 percent to 42 percent, according to Real Clear Politics' average of national polls. 

The icitizen survey also asked specific questions on race relations and law enforcement policy, two issues at the center of national attention. Some interesting findings were:

  • Just over half, 51 percent, of Tennesseans think racism has gotten worse over the past few years.
  • 92 percent of Tennesseans believe it is more dangerous to be a law enforcement officer today than it was in the past.
  • 78 percent of respondents had a “great deal of confidence” in their state and local law enforcement. More than eight in ten voters feel safe around law enforcement officers.
  • More than two-thirds of Tennesseans also favor the expansion of citizen oversight boards of local law enforcement agencies. “Such favorability shows an increased interest in community-oriented civic engagement that could potentially lead to more people headed to the ballot box in November,” said icitizen polling analyst Cynthia Villacis.
For the full poll results, go here."
Toplines, Crosstabs

Tennessee Poll – Survey Toplines
Tennessee Poll – Survey Crosstabs

p. 7, With additional party candidates:

Trump 46
Hillary 29
Johnson 7
Stein 3

Trump 54
Hillary 42


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