News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Trump and Hillary tied 45-45 in North Carolina, CNN ORC Poll of likely voters, Aug. 18-23, 2016

Trump 45
Hillary 45
Johnson 9

8/24/16, "North Carolina," CNN ORC Poll

Aug. 18-23, 2016, 803 interviews with North Carolina likely voters, error margin 3.5, live interviews on 609 land lines, 300 cell phones in total adult sample. Likely voters described themselves as: 292 D, 270 Ind., 241 R.

p. 3 and p. 18, Likely North Carolina voters, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Trump 45
Hillary 45
Johnson 9


Comment: Earlier in the day, the CNN ORC North Carolina poll headline was released for "registered voters" with Hillary at 44 and Trump at 43. Later in the day the more accurate "likely voters" numbers were announced and results for a third candidate, Johnson, were included. Among likely voters and including Johnson, Trump and Hillary are tied 45-45, with Johnson at 9. Even if the difference is small, why not use the more accurate "likely voters" numbers in the early headline? It's apparently customary for polling companies to release the less accurate numbers first without including an alert that more accurate numbers will be out within hours. Below is an example of the early 8/24 headline of "registered voters:"   

Sahil Kapur twitter


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