Doing Advance Work

News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Latest California poll, Trump leads among Hispanic Republican Likely Primary Voters with 53%. Cruz 27, Kasich 4. Overall in Calif., Trump at 54, has 34 point lead. April 27-30, 2016, Survey USA California poll

Total California:

Trump 54
Cruz 20
Kasich 16

California GOP Hispanic voters:
Trump 53
Cruz 27
Kasich 4

April 27-30, 2016. 529 Registered California likely Republican primary voters. Automated voice on landline 61%, text questions on mobile devices, 39%.

5/2/16, "Top 3 CA Primary Contests Not Close At This Hour---Cruz and Kasich No Longer Competitive, Though Congressional-District Delegate-Math Does Matter to Trump," Survey USA

Trump at 54 now has a 34 point lead in the Calif. GOP primary field. Among Hispanic LRCPVs, Trump also has a large lead: 53% are for Trump, 27% for Cruz, 4% for Kasich.  

Second chart below, 53% of Hispanic likely Republican primary voters in California are for Trump, 27% are for Cruz, 4% are for Kasich, 16% are undecided. Hispanic voters comprise 24% of total California likely Republican primary voters, per chart. Third chart below, 65% of Calif. Trump voters are first time GOP primary voters:

"About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of California adults 04/27/16 through 04/30/16. All interviews were conducted after results of the 04/26/16 primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island were known. Of the adults, 2,011 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 529 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Republican Presidential primary, 826 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,502 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,683 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device."...

Charts above from SurveyUSA 


Monday, May 2, 2016

On election eve, large Mexican flag in South Bend, Indiana, greets Trump ralliers in America's former heartland. Bernie Sanders supporter disappointed that fellow protesters used F word so much-Goshen News, 5/2/16. Crowd of 7500 rallied for Trump-South Bend Tribune

5/2/16, Mexican flag in in South Bend, Indiana, for Trump rally: "Protesters line St. Joseph Street in downtown South Bend before Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrived for a rally Monday night," Goshen News, Michael Wanbaugh.

From South Bend Tribune:

Crowd: "During a 48-minute speech before an estimated 7,500 spectators, including two overflow rooms."...

5/2/16, "Trump calls for historic vote in Indiana as he fires up South Bend rally," South Bend Tribune, Jeff Parrott

"Bolstered by recent endorsements from Indiana coaching legends Bobby Knight, Gene Keady, Lou Holtz and Digger Phelps, Trump drew the loudest cheers when he mentioned illegal immigrants and manufacturing job losses to low-wage countries.

At several points during his speech, the crowd started chanting “Build the Wall!”... 

Anti-Trump protesters lined St. Joseph Street, holding signs and hurling words that were often too profane to print....

Kraig Moss, 57, of Oswego, N.Y., was one of the people standing in a line that snaked along St. Joseph Street to the south entrance of the Century Center. He donned a cowboy hat and boots, and he carried a guitar that he used to entertain others in line with his original song, "Gonna Build a Wall."

"Make it tall and stone," he sang. "Make Mexico pay for it all."

Moss' bluesy baritone could be heard above the din of traffic and vendors walking the line to hawk Trump towels, T-shirts, pins and hats proclaiming the candidate's message to "Make America Great Again."

Those in line talked about their reasons for supporting Trump, from his pledges to strengthen the economy and create jobs, to his stance on illegal immigration.

"He's not a politician," one man said when asked why he's voting for Trump....

Trump also hammered on free trade that has cost American jobs. He railed against the North American Free Trade Agreement, signed into law by President Bill Clinton, and said the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership now before Congress will be worse, making “NAFTA look like a baby.”

If elected, he would only negotiate trade deals with one country at a time, and revoke them if they didn’t work out well for the United States, he said....

Trump supporter Kyle Resil, 24, of South Bend, arrived at the Century Center at 2 p.m. with a friend. He came away impressed.

I saw one of the greatest things of America tonight,” Resil said. “I saw our next president.
Asked what he liked, Resil said, “Everything. Everything. Building the wall, everything. I’m speechless.”

The event also drew Steve and Jeanne Mott, a married couple from LaPorte.

“I think he’s got some good deals going on and I like the way he’s handling it,” Jeanne Mott said. “He needs to do something about getting America back on track. It’s disgraceful, of what the government’s doing. There’s no jobs. We need something changed.”"... 


Added: Goshen News

"“I’m thoroughly disgusted with this protest, Barajas said. The fact that there are people out here shouting the F-word makes us look as ignorant as the Trump supporters.”...South Bend resident Aleta Barajas, a Bernie Sanders supporter....decided to roll up her poster board and call it quits before the rally officially began."...

5/2/16, "DECISION 2016: Trump tells South Bend crowd if he wins Indiana, ‘it’s over with’," Goshen News, Julie Crothers Beer   
"Republican presidential front-runner Donald J. Trump led supporters in South Bend Monday night with a similar message, touting his recent endorsements from Hoosier coaches such as Bobby Knight, a new poll that says he’s beating Hillary Clinton in Indiana and his recent landslide wins on the East Coast....

A crowd of several thousand people gathered inside the Century Center, cheering and chanting in support of Trump’s plans to build up the country’s military, take care of veterans, repeal Obamacare and “knock the hell out of ISIS.” Crowd estimates varied from 4,400 to 7,500.

But the loudest cheers from the audience of several thousand came when the billionaire real estate mogul vowed to protect the Second Amendment and to build a wall separating the United States and Mexico....

Trump also launched into a familiar attack of the “dishonest” media and “crooked” politicians before railing against his Republican opponent Ted Cruz.

“Lyin’ Ted does not have the temperament to be doing this. He’s sulking like a dog because he’s losing so badly,” Trump said. “…Lyin’ Ted. He lies like nobody can lie.”

With less than 12 hours remaining until today’s primary election, Trump also took time Monday night to encourage Hoosier voters to hit the polls and show their support during a year when Indiana matters.

“Usually by this time it’s over and this and that, but this time you folks belong where you belong — it’s called importantville,” Trump said....

"And we’re going to win. We’re going to keep winning. We’re going to win so much you’re going to beg me ‘Mr. President, please, please it’s too much winning. We can’t take it’."

Protesters aplenty

Trump’s approximately 45-minute speech came after several hours of protesting outside the venue.

“Vote Hillary!” a protester screamed over the sound of horns honking in agreement and a handful of Trump supporters shouting back in response....

Chants and cheers erupted often during the several hours leading up to Trump’s visit, sometimes turning to obscene language.

The negative message didn’t appeal to South Bend resident Aleta Barajas, a Bernie Sanders supporter, who decided to roll up her poster board and call it quits before the rally officially began.

“I’m thoroughly disgusted with this protest,” Barajas said. 

“The fact that there are people out here shouting the F-word makes us look as ignorant as the Trump supporters.”

Across the street, Alan Domke, of South Bend, aimed his camera phone toward the protest, shaking his head in disgust as the chants continued.

“It’s worrisome,” said Granger resident and Trump supporter Ben Reck as he watched protesters across St. Joseph Street as he waited to enter the Century Center.

There’s a big culture difference from one side to the other,” Reck said, commenting on the mostly silent line of Trump supporters waiting in line in contrast to the shouting from across the street. “But the thing about Trump is you either like him or you don’t.”"


5/2/16, "Photos: Trump rally in South Bend," South Bend Tribune 
Entertainment waiting in line

Indiana Coach Digger Phelps endorses Trump

Signs at Trump rally

Trump addresses rallyers


Trump has 83-97% chance to win Indiana primary May 3, 2016 per Polls Plus 83%, Polls Only 97%, May 2, 2016, 4:43pm

5/2/16, "Indiana Republican Primary,", 4:33pm

1. Polls Plus, 83%:

2. Below, Polls Only, 97%


Trump 41%, Hillary 39% in latest national Rasmussen poll, 4/28-29, Likely Voters. First time Trump has led the matchup. Trump leads among unaffiliated voters (now the largest group of voters). Hillary only has narrow lead among voters under age 40, traditionally a Democrat group

5/2/16, "Trump 41%, Clinton 39%," Rasmussen Reports

"A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. 

Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This is the first time Trump has led the matchup since last October. Clinton held a 41% to 36% advantage in early March

Trump now has the support of 73% of Republicans, while 77% of Democrats back Clinton. But Trump picks up 15% of Democrats, while just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters prefer Clinton, given this matchup. Republicans are twice as likely to prefer another candidate. 

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads 37% to 31%, but 23% like another candidate. Nine percent (9%) are undecided. 

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 27-28, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology

Ninety-one percent (91%) of Democrats now say Clinton is likely to be their party’s nominee. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republicans see Trump as the likely GOP nominee.  

Trump leads 48% to 35% among men but trails Clinton by a similar 44% to 34% among women. 

Clinton’s narrow 38% to 32% lead among those under 40, traditionally a reliable Democratic group, suggests that younger voters will be a big target in the upcoming campaigning.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of these voters like another candidate for now, and five percent (5%) are undecided. Trump has a small advantage among older voters. 

Clinton earns 71% of the black vote, 45% support among other minority voters but just 33% of whites. Trump gets only nine percent (9%) of blacks, 33% of other minorities and 48% of white voters. 

Here’s the latest delegate count going into tomorrow’s Indiana primaries. For Bernie Sanders and the #Never Trump forces on the Republican side, Indiana is likely to be their last stand....

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only."


US as of 2015 per Gallup: Democrats 29%, Republicans, 26%, unaffiliated 42%

1/28/16, "At start of campaign, the last gasp of political parties?" McClatchy, David Lightman
[Ed. note: Please excuse tiny text. It means google isn't happy with this post. The link to the article still works.]

"The largest party in America now is no party — with the ranks of people calling themselves independents at the highest level in more than 75 years of polling. The parties do not control the message. People learn about politics from social media instead of traditional means such as mailings or campaign rallies. And the parties are no longer the sole banker of politics. Big-money interests now effectively create shadow parties with extensive networks of donors of their own

The result: People are tuning out and turning away.

In 2012, average voter turnout for statewide primaries for president, governor and U.S. Senate plunged to its lowest level since the modern primary system became popular in 1972.

“No one likes political parties anymore,” said Jan Leighley, who studies voter behavior at American University, where she is a professor of government. “They no longer have to work through the political process,” added Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute.

It’s a historic change in voter behavior. The Democratic and Republican parties have dominated American politics since the mid-1850s. They grew and prospered as inclusive coalitions that tolerated diverse views for the sake of winning elections and then consolidating power....

“Americans’ attachment to the two major political parties in recent years is arguably the weakest Gallup has recorded since the advent of its polls,” Gallup reported in January.

Just 29 percent called themselves Democrats last year (2015), it found, “making it safe to conclude that the current (number) is also the low point in Gallup polling history.” Republican loyalty was only 1 percentage point above its recent low of 25 percent three years ago. The bloc of independents reached 40 percent in 2011, and it has stayed at or above that level ever since.

The parties’ challenge is clear in states of all sizes. In New Hampshire, site of the first primary election, at least 40 percent register as “undeclared,” meaning they have no formal affiliation with a political party.

In 2014, California had twice as many voters without a party affiliation as it did 20 years earlier. The same year, Florida had 47 percent more independent voters than a decade earlier.

Most indifferent to parties: young Americans. Nearly half the millennials identified as independents in 2014, Pew found, more than the combined total of those willing to be called either Democrats or Republicans.

“I never want to write down that I’m a Republican,” said Rebecca Sorensen, a sophomore at Penn State. She leans Republican but is reluctant to openly identify with the party because she supports abortion rights. 

Historically, children adopted their parents’ political views, including identification with the two major parties. Not anymore.

Millennials get information from sources other than from family dinners, neighbors or campaign brochures. If something piques their interest, they turn to Twitter, text messaging, The Skimm and other modern forms of instant communication.

“If I want to know more, I Google it,” said Jayla Akers, a sophomore at Penn State University.

Political parties are seen as too narrowly focused, too interested in keeping incumbents in office.

They gerrymander congressional districts to maximize their chances so that election after election only a handful of House of Representatives races are true contests. Of the House’s 435 seats, 402 incumbents are considered safe bets for re-election this year, said the nonpartisan Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report....

It’s a far cry from freedom from party or faction that the Founding Fathers envisioned.

This two-party system quashes independent thought and the courage to take a stance on positions and kills the free market of ideas our country was supposed to be founded on,” said Ellen Read, a political activist in New Hampshire. 

Parties for generations did welcome differing views and broader membership.

“The Republican Party, both in this state and nationally, is a broad party. There is room in our tent for many views,” Ronald Reagan, then governor of California, said in 1967....

Republicans once had a strong bloc of abortion rights supporters, for example, but in 1976 the party formally included in its platform support for a constitutional amendment “to restore protection of the right to life for unborn children.” It’s now unmistakably the anti-abortion party....

Democrats also were critical of their own tactics....“It’s true that today’s multifaceted political landscape changes the footprint of national parties,” said Democratic Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
But she noted that “in the primaries, we set the rules for the nomination and nothing can replace the unique ability of the national parties to effectively organize and mobilize voters,” and their role in the general election is so detailed it “cannot be replicated externally.”

While independents are gaining clout, so are the big-money groups that now operate as virtual political parties.

Take Freedom Partners, an organization sponsored by brothers Charles and David Koch of Wichita, Kan. Last year, the group committed to spend $889 million on politics and policy in 2015 and 2016....

And the Koch network does more than just spend money. Twice each year it hosts about 400 executives, who pay dues of $100,000 each, for meetings on politics and policies....

Other alternatives to the parties also are gearing up. In that world, everyday voters ask, how can they ever be heard? Not through the Republican or Democrats parties, say increasing numbers of voters.

As Peter White, a cabin manager in Nottingham, New Hampshire, put it, “You feel the two parties both work for Wall Street and don’t care who wins.”" 

"This version changes the reference to the rise in independents in California to say voters without a party affiliation."


In Fort Wayne, Indiana, hateful young Mexicans, the pride of decades of globalist US politicians, line streets shouting profanities during Trump rally in America's former heartland

5/2/16, "'Make America Mexico Again': Why Americans are fed up with illegals," Fox News, Todd Starnes, opinion

"There is something a bit unsettling about watching violent, foul-mouthed protesters waving the Mexican flag on American soil.

Over the weekend, Hispanic children lined the streets in Fort Wayne, Indiana – hurling filthy insults at Donald Trump supporters. 

F*** you,” the youngsters shouted as they flipped off passerby. “F*** you.”

Video captured images of the angry protesters wearing sombreros and holding signs that read, “Brown Pride.”

What kind of a parent would allow their child to behave that way in public?

A similar protest turned violent last week in Southern California – as a horde of illegals and their supporters violently attacked Trump supporters, police and even a horse. Yes, a horse. ["The horse, named Drifter, was injured by a thrown rock, police said."]

Cole Bartiromo, identified by local media as a Trump supporter, needed a half-dozen stiches after the mob bashed open his head. “Suddenly, out of nowhere I felt this thud in the front of my head,” Bartiromo told “I started panicking – getting scared, thinking, ‘When are they going to stop? Are they going to kill me? I mean, these aren’t rational people.’”

The California mob spilled into the streets – blocking roadways and smashing police cars. They intended to shut down a Trump rally. They intended to silence Mr. Trump and his supporters.

They were angry about the wall he plans to build – to secure our border from the invading **horde** of illegals. They were angry about Mr. Trump speaking the truth – about how illegals are killing Americans – on American soil.

One of the most disturbing images in recent days came from California – a small child – holding a sign. It read, “Make America Mexico Again.”

There was a time in this nation’s history when having 13 million people breach your border would have been considered an invasion. We used to fight wars over such a hostile act....

We’ve been invaded and our government has provided aid and comfort to the enemy.

In both Indiana and California the protesters tried to bully and intimidate law-abiding Americans into silent submission. They tried – but they failed.

You see, the illegals need to understand something – “We the People” will no longer be silent. We will not allow our sovereignty to be violated anymore.

The American taxpayers have reached a boiling point. We are tired of illegals taking American jobs. We are tired of illegals living off our tax dollars. We are tired of illegals causing mayhem in our streets.

And more than anything, we are tired of lawmakers who refuse to defend American sovereignty.

The truth is we don’t know who or what has been coming across our southern border. We don’t know what dangers lurk in our neighborhoods.

And we want a president who will put American lives first. We want a president who will do whatever it takes to keep our families safe. We want a president who will defend our sovereignty.

And if I see one more foul-mouthed protester waving a Mexican flag on American soil – I’ll personally donate a pile of bricks to help build Mr. Trump’s wall."

Above image: Matt Finn, FNC 


On election eve in Indiana, Trump has double digit lead at 44%, April 28 and 29, 2016 Gravis poll, live interviews, 379 Registered Likely Indiana Republican primary voters

Trump 44
Cruz 27
Kasich 9

April 28-29, 2016, 379 Registered Likely Indiana Republican primary voters, live phone interviews on landlines and mobile devices, 5% error margin

5/2/16, "Current Indiana Polling," Gravis Marketing

"Trump holds a double-digit lead over Ted Cruz according to a recent Gravis Marketing poll completed by phone surveys from April 28th to the 29th.

Gravis Marketing, one of the leading nonpartisan political research firms based in Winter Springs, Fla., conducted a random survey of 379 likely Republican Primary voters in Indiana. The Indiana poll results has a margin of error of ± 5% at a 95% confidence level. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using live telephone calls to landlines and mobile phone numbers of registered voters in Indiana accessible through the Gravis Marketing compiled registered voter database and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

The Gravis poll began by asking 379 Republican Primary voters whom 91 percent indicated they were likely to vote in the upcoming primary and six percent stating they have already voted, “Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?” With three candidates remaining on the ballot, front runner Donald Trump received 44 percent support from Hoosier State Republican and Independent voters that took place in the survey. Texas Senator Ted Cruz received 27 percent of the vote while John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio received the support of 9 percent of those surveyed. At the conclusion of data collection, 19 percent indicated they were still ‘uncertain’ as to which GOP candidate they’d select."...

Image from Gravis Marketing


On election eve, Trump +9.3 in Indiana, Real Clear Politics average of six April 2016 polls

5/2/16, "Indiana Republican Presidential Primary," Real Clear Politics, May 3, 2016 primary



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