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Saturday, July 2, 2016

Trump leads Hillary by 4 points in June 28-29, 2016 Rasmussen Poll of 1000 Likely Voters nationwide. Sample: 33 Repub., 36 Dem, 31 Independent

Trump 43
Hillary 39
Other 12
Not sure 5

6/30/16, "White House Watch: Trump 43%, Clinton 39% - Latest Numbers," Rasmussen Reports

Poll dates June 28-29, 2016. 1000 Likely Voters nationwide. 3% error margin. 50-50 male, female. 33% Republican, 36% Democrat, 31% Independent. Race: 72 white, 12 black, 16 other. Age: 18-39 32%, 40-64 50%, 65+ 18%.

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"The tables have turned. Last week at this time, it was Clinton 44%, Trump 39%. This is Trump’s highest level of support in Rasmussen Reports’ matchups with Clinton since last October."...  

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June 28-29, 2016 results:

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Male-Female

Trump 48 male, 39 female
Hillary 34 male, 45 female

(Trump +14 in men, Hillary +6 in women)

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Race

Trump: 47 white, 19 black, 44 other (Hispanic, Asian)

Hillary: 37 white, 60 black, 33 other (Hispanic, Asian)

(Trump +10 among Hispanic and Asian voters)

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Political Party identification

Trump: 75 Republican, 14 Democrat, 45 Other (Independent, Unaffiliated)

Hillary: 10 Republican, 76 Democrat, 27 Other (Independent, Unaffiliated)

(Trump +18 among Independent and Unaffiliated voters, 45-27)

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Ideology

Trump: 73 Conservative, 40 Moderate, 6 Liberal, 15 not sure

Hillary: 13 Conservative, 39 Moderate, 78 Liberal, 63 not sure

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Age

18-39 (tie)

Trump 36
Hillary 36 

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40-64

Trump 45
Hillary 42


65+

Trump 53
Hillary 37

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Education

Less than high school:

Trump 26
Hillary 67

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High school graduate

Trump 50
Hillary 35

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Some college

Trump 53
Hillary 27

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College graduate

Trump 42
Hillary 41

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Graduate school

Trump 35
Hillary 47

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Not sure

Trump 25
Hillary 45


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Employment

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Government

Trump 33
Hillary 54

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Entrepreneur

Trump 50
Hillary 38

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Private co.

Trump 42
Hillary 36

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Retired

Trump 52
Hillary 37

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Other

Trump 34
Hillary 41

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Obama approval:

Strongly approve

Trump voters 4%
Hillary voters 89%
 
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Strongly disapprove

Trump voters 86%
Hillary voters 2%

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6/30/16, "White House Watch: White House Watch: Trump 43%, Clinton 39%," Rasmussen Reports

"The tables have turned in this week’s White House Watch. After trailing Hillary Clinton by five points for the prior two weeks, Donald Trump has now taken a four-point lead.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% of the vote, while Clinton earns 39%. Twelve percent (12%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Last week at this time, it was Clinton 44%, Trump 39%. This is Trump’s highest level of support in Rasmussen Reports’ matchups with Clinton since last October. His support has been hovering around the 40% mark since April, but it remains to be seen whether he’s just having a good week or this actually represents a real move forward among voters. 

Trump now earns 75% support among his fellow Republicans and picks up 14% of the Democratic vote. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats like Clinton, as do 10% of GOP voters. Both candidates face a sizable number of potential defections because of unhappiness with them in their own parties. 

Trump made a major speech on jobs and trade on Tuesday that even the New York Times characterized as “perhaps the most forceful case he has made for the crux of his candidacy….that the days of globalism have passed and that a new approach is necessary.

Some also speculate that last week’s vote in Great Britain to leave the European Union signals a rise of economic nationalism that is good for Trump. Despite the media panic and market swings that have resulted, Americans are not particularly worried that the “Brexit” will hurt them in the pocketbook.

The latest terrorist carnage - this week in Istanbul, Turkey - also may be helping Trump who is arguing for a harsher response to radical Islam than Clinton. Voters remain lukewarm about President Obama's national security policies and expect more of the same if Clinton moves back into the White House next January. Trump, if elected, will definitely change things, voters say, but not necessarily for the best.  

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 28-29, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology

The U.S. economy historically has had an average annual growth rate of 3.3% but has fallen short of that number in every year of Obama’s presidency. Still, his fellow Democrats give the president positive marks for his economic performance and think (Hillary) Clinton would do more of the same. Trump is expected to make the economy better by all voters - except Democrats

Trump how holds a 14-point lead among men, while Clinton leads by six among women. The candidates are tied among those under 40, while Trump leads among older voters. 

Clinton continues to hold a wide lead among blacks. Trump leads among whites and other minority voters

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads by 18 points [up from a 3 point lead last week], but 28% of these voters like some other candidates or are undecided. 

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of voters who Strongly Approve of the job Obama is doing choose Clinton. Trump has 86% support among those who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance....

Fewer voters than ever think the government gives the right amount of attention to the threat of Islamic terrorism here at home

A tie vote in the U.S. Supreme Court last week upheld a lower court ruling that halted Obama’s plan to exempt millions of illegal immigrants from deportation. Clinton has vowed to take the president’s amnesty plan even further. Trump wants to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and deport many of those who are here illegally. Most voters continue to oppose Obama’s plan as they have from the start and believe instead that the U.S. government needs to more aggressively deport illegal immigrants."

Chart above from Rasmussen


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Added: Recent Rasmussen survey on domestic Islamic terrorism:

6/24/16, "Voters Question Government’s Focus on Domestic Islamic Terrorism," Rasmussen Reports

"Following the shooting massacre at an Orlando gay nightclub by a man pledging allegiance to the radical Islamic State group (ISIS), fewer voters than ever think the government gives the right amount of attention to the threat of Islamic terrorism here at home. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that just 20% of Likely U.S. Voters think the government’s focus on domestic Islamic terrorism is about right.

That’s down 11 points from March, just after the bombings of the airport and a metro station in Brussels, and the lowest level measured in surveys for over five years

Fifty-two percent (52%) say the government does not focus enough on this threat, up two points from the previous survey. But 25% think it focuses on the threat too much, up from 14% in March. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans and 53% of voters not affiliated with either major political party believe the government does not focus on this threat enough, but only 31% of Democrats share this view. Slightly more voters (36%) in President Obama's party say the government focuses too much on the domestic Islamic threat, while 31% think the focus is about right....

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats and 53% of unaffiliated voters now favor stricter gun control laws, pushing overall support to a new high. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Republicans are opposed to additional gun control. 

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 22-23, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology

Just 26% of voters think the United States is safer today than it was before the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the lowest finding in nearly 10 years of regular tracking. Most voters also think the government won't be able to stop further terrorist attacks on the homeland like the one in Orlando

Men and those 40 and older are more likely than women and younger voters to think the government doesn't focus on the domestic Islamic threat enough. Pluralities of women and those under 40 agree, but they also feel more strongly than men and older voters that the government is too focused on this potential threat. 

Whites and other minority voters feel more strongly than blacks do that the government does not focus enough on the threat of domestic Islamic terrorism. 

Eighty-five percent (85%) of voters who Strongly Disapprove of Obama's job performance believe the government does not focus enough on the threat of domestic Islamic terrorism. Only 15% of those who Strongly Approve of the job the president is doing agree.
Last November, 60% of all voters said the United States is at war with radical Islamic terrorism

In late March, 45% still favored Donald Trump’s proposed temporary ban on Muslims entering this country until the federal government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists. Forty two-percent (42%) were opposed. 

But the Obama administration is speeding the vetting process for Syrian refugees so 10,000 can come to the United States this year. Most voters still don’t welcome those newcomers from Syria and fear they are a threat to the country. 

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters think Islam as practiced today encourages violence more than most other religions, and 71% feel Islamic religious leaders need to do more to emphasize the peaceful beliefs of their faith. Most say the Islamic community in this country is not vocal enough in condemning terror attacks.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/june_2016/voters_question_government_s_focus_on_domestic_islamic_terrorism 



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