News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Monday, July 25, 2016

Trump up 2, Hillary down 5 in Ohio July 22-24, 2016. Trump leads in Ohio 42-39, Public Policy Poll

Trump 42
Hillary 39
Johnson 6
Stein 2

Poll dates July 22-24, 2016. 1334 registered Ohio voters, error margin 2.7.  80% "by phone," 20% internet. D39 R38, I23. White 83, African American 12, Other 5. Voted for Obama 50, voted for Romney 41. 53 Female, 47 male (p. 5)

Hillary down 5 points, Trump up 2 from June 2016 Ohio poll, Clinton 44, Trump 40

7/25/16, "Trump Gets Modest Boost in Ohio After Convention," Public Policy Poll 

"PPP's new Ohio poll finds Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 42-39 in the state, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. Voters who support either Johnson or Stein or are undecided in the full field go to Clinton by an 18 point margin if they had to pick between just Clinton and Trump, making the head to head match up a 45/45 tie.

When PPP last polled Ohio in June Clinton led 44/40. The tightening of the race has come completely thanks to Trump consolidating his support among Republican voters. Where he had only a 66/15 advantage with them in June, he's now ahead 82/9....Independents have remained completely steady- Clinton was up 39/38 with them in June, and she's up 41/40 with them now.

[Ed. note: Page 21 regarding independent voters, Trump and Hillary are in a statistical tie, 41-40, though PPP describes it as "she's up." Margin of error is 2.7 for the total poll. Even using a 2.7 error margin on the 23% independent subset, Trump could be 42.7, Hillary could be 38.3. Why say twice that one is "up" over another with only a one point lead? The Poll includes 23% self-identified independent voters, compared to 39D and 38R. It's customary for error margins for smaller subsets to be greater than for an overall poll. This poll only mentions an error margin for the overall poll.]  

(continuing): "There's one big finding in this poll that bodes quite well for Clinton moving forward. 48% of voters in the state say they'd choose Barack Obama if the choice was between him and Trump, to only 44% who say they'd go with Trump....That suggests that...the President may be the best surrogate she has out on the campaign trail.

The convention does seem to have been a success in Ohio though- 43% of voters in the state think it was a success for the GOP to 38% who think it was a failure. And 68% of voters in the state are glad the convention was held in Ohio to only 13% who wish it would have been held somewhere. One clear takeaway from our post convention polling is that Trump's family may be the best surrogates he has. Trump's children get a collective 51/21 favorability rating from voters in Ohio, and voters appear to be pretty nonplussed by Melania's plagiarism scandal as she comes in at 43/30 favorability. Among the political figures who spoke at the convention Ben Carson (49/34 favorability) and Rudy Giuliani (45/33) fare well with Ohioans while Newt Gingrich (38/42) and Chris Christie (32/46) don't do as hot.

The biggest loser from the convention is Ted Cruz though. He has an 18/65 favorability rating with Ohio voters, making him by far and away the least popular figure in our poll. Even among Republicans he's at just 23/61. We asked GOP voters who they would support in a hypothetical primary contest between Trump and Cruz, and Trump wins out 61-19....

Mike Pence didn't make a strong impression on voters in Ohio one way or another. A 40% plurality came out of the convention with no opinion. Among those who do have one, 33% see him favorably to 27% with a negative view. 53% of voters say Pence's selection has no bearing on their likelihood to vote for Trump one way or another, with 21% saying Pence makes them more likely to vote for Trump and 22% less likely. That just makes Pence normal in the pantheon of Vice Presidential selections, which rarely have much impact on the race....Full results here."


Added: For the race crowd, Hillary and Trump only 3 points apart in "other:"

PPP poll page 25, Race "other" than White or African American: Hillary 39, Trump 36



No comments:


Blog Archive

About Me

My photo
I'm the daughter of an Eagle Scout (fan of the Brooklyn Dodgers and Mets) and a Beauty Queen.