News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Among registered Hispanic voters nationwide for whom English is their dominant language: Hillary 48, Trump 41, per Pew Poll, June 15-26, 2016

Pew Poll, registered voters, June 15-26, 2016, Democrat and leaners 49%, Republican and leaners 42%. White 69%, Hispanic 11%, Black 11%. Hillary supporters 51%, Trump supporters 42% (p.9, chart). 559 landline, 1686 cell phone.

English dominant ("those who are more proficient in English than Spanish," self assessed) (43% of registered Hispanic voters): Hillary 48, Trump 41

Spanish dominant (57% of registered Latino voters): Hillary 80, Trump 11 (Pew uses terms 'Hispanic' and 'Latino' interchangeably)

Overall Hillary 66, Trump 24, among registered Hispanic voters. "Don't know" voters not included, per Pew. Error margin on total sample 2.4% (p. 9 chart), subgroups higher.

7/7/16, "Election 2016: 6. Hispanic voters and the 2016 election," Pew Research,
"Hillary Clinton currently has a 66%-24% advantage over Donald Trump among Hispanic registered voters. In a three-way test, including Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson, 58% of Latino voters support Clinton, 20% support Trump and 13% back Johnson.

At a somewhat later point in the campaign four years ago, Barack Obama’s lead over Mitt Romney among Hispanics was comparable to Clinton’s lead over Trump today (69%-21%). And in the summer of 2008, Obama led John McCain 66%-23% among Hispanic voters.
(continuing): "Clinton holds an 80%-11% lead among Hispanic voters who are bilingual or Spanish-dominant (those who are more proficient in Spanish than English); these voters make up about 57% of all Latino registered voters.  

In the past, Latinos have been consistently underrepresented in the electorate, compared with their share of eligible voters or the overall population. In the current survey, only about half of all Latinos (49%) say they are “absolutely certain” they are registered to vote. That compares with 69% of blacks and 80% of whites.

There are several reasons why the share of Latinos who are registered to vote is lower than it is among blacks or whites. Many Latino immigrants may be in the U.S. legally but have not yet obtained U.S. citizenship. Many others are in the country as undocumented immigrants. Both groups are not eligible to vote, yet they make up about 30% of all Latino adults.
Clinton holds an overwhelming (87%-7%) advantage over Trump among Latino adults who say they are not certain they are registered to vote.

Hispanic voters and the issues

The top voting issues for Hispanic voters are similar to those among all registered voters. An overwhelming share of Hispanic voters (86%) say the economy will be very important to their vote; among all voters, 84% cite the economy as very important. Terrorism is cited by 80% of Hispanic voters and an identical share of all registered voters....

Pew Research Center’s National Survey of Latinos has found that while immigration is widely viewed as an important priority among Hispanics, the economy, education and health care often are seen as important or more important....

Clinton’s advantages among Hispanic voters are narrower on the three issues on which she trails Trump among all voters: 

improving economic conditions and 
defending the country from terrorist attacks.

Latino voters and 2016 engagement

The size of the Hispanic electorate is expected to number 27.3 million eligible voters (adult U.S. citizens) in 2016,"...

[Ed. note: Pew defines "eligible voters" as "US citizens age 18 and over," per caption under graph 3. The total adult population "(adult US citizens)" per Pew, isn't indicative of likely voters in any group or subgroup. Terms such as "The Hispanic electorate" and "eligible Hispanic voters" refer to Hispanic adults, not "Likely Hispanic voters" or even "Registered Hispanic voters."]

(continuing): "projected to make up 12% of all eligible voters"...

[Ed. note: Again, "all eligible voters" means all adults, not "all registered voters" nor "all likely voters."].

(continuing): "a share equal to that of blacks among eligible voters. But voter turnout among Hispanics has long lagged that of other groups.

At this point in the campaign, Hispanic voters lag all registered voters on several measures of engagement. Two-thirds of Hispanic voters (67%) say they have been following news about the election very or fairly closely. That compares with 85% of all voters....

Among both Latinos and the public overall, there are wide gaps in political engagement between voters and non-voters....For instance, just 37% of Hispanics who are not registered to vote say they have been following election news at least fairly closely. That compares with 56% of all adults who are not registered to vote."

p. 9, "Methodology"

"The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted June 15-26, 2016 among a national sample of 2,245 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (559 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,686 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 1,067 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted under the direction of Abt SRBI. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see

A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. The first sample was a random-digit dialing (RDD) landline sample; a total of 500 interviews were completed using this RDD landline sample. The second sample was a RDD cell sample; a total of 1,500 interviews were completed using this RDD cell sample. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older.

Additional samples from both the landline and cellular RDD frames were drawn to achieve an oversample of Hispanics. The selection of these oversamples was similar to the other RDD samples, with the exception that respondents were screened to determine if they were of Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin; if not, then the interview was terminated. Hispanic respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest Hispanic adult male or female now at home. A total of 543 Hispanic respondents were interviewed, 245 in the oversample (59 were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 186 were interviewed on a cell phone), and 298 in the main RDD sample (45 were interviewed on a landline telephone and 253 were interviewed on a cellphone).

The combined landline and cell phone samples are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the 2014 Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The weighting procedure accounts for the additional interviews with Hispanic respondents. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status (landline only, cell phone only, or both landline and cell phone), based on extrapolations from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents interviewed on a landline phone (Hispanic household size among the Hispanic oversample landline respondents). The margins of error reported and statistical tests of significance are adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, a measure of how much efficiency is lost from the weighting procedures.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls."...


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