Trump edges Hillary 44-42 among Iowa likely voters, July 8-11, 2016, Monmouth Poll. Younger Iowa voters prefer Trump over Hillary 51% to 32%. 'Iowa could be leading edge of a midwest push for Trump'-Monmouth Poll

Trump 44
Hillary 42
Johnson 6
Stein 1

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Independent voters

Trump 39
Hillary 35
Johnson 10

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Voters under age 50

Trump 51
Hillary 32
Johnson 7

Poll dates, July 8-11, 2016, 401 likely Iowa voters, 48 male, 52 female (+4 female), 37 D, 35 R, 28 I, of 351 on list of reg. voters, 200 landline, 151 cell phone, live interviews, 4.9 error margin

7/12/16, "Trump Has Slight Edge Over Clinton," Monmouth University Poll, W. Long Branch, NJ

"Donald Trump holds a nominal 2 point lead over Hillary Clinton in the battle for Iowa's electoral votes, according to the Monmouth University Poll....

Among Iowa voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 44% currently support Trump and 42% back Clinton. Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% say they will support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 2% say they will vote for another candidate, and 6% are undecided.

Among self-identified Republicans, 87% support Trump while 6% choose Clinton, 5% back Johnson, and 1% support Stein or another candidate. Among Democrats, 86% support Clinton while 8% choose Trump, 2% back Johnson, and 1% support Stein or another candidate. Among independents, 39% are with Trump and 35% are with Clinton, while 10% back Johnson and 4% choose Stein or another candidate. Clinton has the lead among women voters by 54% to 33%. Trump has a similar edge among men of 56% to 29%.

One unusual finding in the poll is that Trump leads among voters under 50 years old in Iowa. In Monmouth polls conducted nationally and in other states, Clinton has held an advantage with younger voters. Specifically, 51% of Iowa voters under age 50 currently support Trump, compared to 32% for Clinton, 7% for Johnson, and 3% for Stein or another candidate. Among voters age 50 and older, Clinton has the edge with 50% support, compared to 38% for Trump, 4% for Johnson and 1% for Stein or another candidate.

"It's a toss-up right now, but Iowa could be the leading edge of a midwest push for Trump," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute....

More than 4-in-10 voters (45%) feel it is very important to keep Clinton from being elected president, which is slightly more than the number (40%) who say the same about Trump.

There is not a clear consensus on which candidate is more likely to help "the little guy" - a campaign theme that has been emerging over the past few weeks. Clinton has a slight edge here, with 38% who say she is more likely to look out for the little guy compared to 30% who say this describes Trump more. Another 4% say this describes both of them equally, but 24% say neither candidate is likely to look out for the little guy.

On the other hand, recent news about how Clinton handled her private email server while Secretary of State poses a drag on her candidacy. More than 4-in-10 Iowa voters (43%) believe that the Democratic nominee acted criminally, another 32% say she showed poor judgment and just 11% say she did nothing out of the ordinary, while another 15% offer no opinion....

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from July 8 to 11, 2016 with 401 Iowa residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ....

Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 351 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 on a landline and 151 on a cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and party registration based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls."





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