News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Monday, July 11, 2016

Trump leads Hillary in new Florida Poll especially among Hispanic voters: +13 among Likely Florida Hispanic Voters, +5 among all Florida Likely Voters, July 9-10, 2016, JMC poll. Trump leads Hillary by 15 pts in crucial Central Florida I-4 corridor. Problem for Hillary: Fla. Pres. preference mirrors disapproval of Obama

Trump 47
Hillary 42
Johnson 2
Stein 1
Undecided 8


p. 2, Among Florida Likely Hispanic voters: Trump +13

Trump 49
Hillary 36
Johnson 4 
Undecided 11

p. 2, Crucial Florida I-4 corridor (Trump +15)
Trump 52
Hillary 37 

(In 2012 in I-4 corridor, Romney had only 1 point lead: 50, Obama 49)


July 9-10, 2016, Florida likely voters, 3.7 error margin, 700 completed responses to 6 poll questions, automated telephone poll. 55% female, 43% male (+12 female). 72-14-8-6% white/black/Hispanic/other," while the party registration of respondents was 42D, 39R, 18Ind.
7/11/16, "JMC Analytics, Florida Poll Results"

2016 Florida partisan geographic preferences mirror those of 2012 with one exception:

p. 2, "Mitt Romney only carried Central Florida 50-49, while Trump has a 52-37% (+15) lead over Clinton in this crucial region (also known as the "I-4 corridor" of the state)."

p. 2, "Ethnic-While much has been written about the monolithic nature of the Hispanic vote this year, the reality is more complicated in Florida, where the partisan breakdown of likely Hispanic voters is 39-31% Democratic-Republican [+8 D]. (30% are not affiliated with the two major parties). Those of Hispanic origin in South Florida (particularly Miami-Dade) are historically Republican, while the growing Hispanic population in Central Florida is democratic, but not unanimously nor consistently so.

In this poll, Trump has a 49-36 lead [+13] over Clinton among Hispanics, largely due to a 72-11% lead among Hispanic Republicans."

p. 2, "Gender: There is a 17 point gender gap as males favor Trump 51-36 [+15], while female voters favor Clinton 46-44."

p. 2, "There is an inherent fifth facet to Donald Trump's lead in Florida: voters by a 53-40% margin disapprove of President Obama's job performance, and there is a strong correlation between President Obama's job approval and the presidential numbers: those who approve of Obama's performance favor Clinton over Trump 88-4%, while those disapproving of Obama's job performance favor Trump 84-6% over Clinton. (Those undecided about Obama's performance favor Clinton 44-15).

p. 4, Question 2:

Obama job approval among Florida Hispanic likely voters

38% approve
49% disapprove


p. 4, question 2, Obama job approval among all likely Florida voters,

40% approve

53% disapprove

Florida map from JMC poll:


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