News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Trump at 51 in NY State Public Policy Poll, April 7-10, 2016. Trump leads both Cruz and Kasich in all parts of the state, all demographics, and across spectrum of Republican ideologies

Trump 51
Kasich 25
Cruz 20

Poll dates, April 7-10, 2016. 483 New York State LRPVs. Trump wins every group: very conservative, moderate, men, women, all age groups, NY City suburbs, NY City itself, and upstate New York. 80% landline, 20% internet.

4/12/16, "New York Hates Ted Cruz; Trump, Clinton Lead Big," Public Policy Polling, Tom Jensen

"PPP's new New York poll finds Donald Trump heading for a dominant victory in his home state, where he gets 51% to 25% for John Kasich and 20% for Ted Cruz.

There had been some thought Cruz might have momentum after his big win in Wisconsin last week, but New Yorkers hate him. Even among Republicans just 35% see him favorably to 50% with an unfavorable opinion. Kasich has a narrowly positive favorability at 41/38, but the only candidate GOP voters in the state really like is Trump at 65/29....

If voters had to choose between Kasich and Cruz, Kasich wins narrowly 45/39. In head to head match ups with Trump, Kasich trails by 34 at 63/29 and Cruz trails by 35 at 60/25. There's nothing on any of these fronts to help anti-Trump voters figure out what the best vehicle for them is....

Beyond having the highest favorability of the candidates and dominating both Cruz and Kasich in head to head match ups, Trump also has by far and away the most committed base of support. 80% of his voters say they'll definitely support him, compared to only 56% for Cruz and 48% for Kasich who say that.

Trump's winning every key group in New York. He leads Cruz 52/35 among 'very conservative' voters (Kasich gets 7%,) and Kasich 51/37 among moderates (Cruz gets 10%). Trump also leads with 55% among men, 54% with seniors, 50% among younger voters, and 46% among women. Regionally Trump's greatest dominance comes in the New York City suburbs where he gets 64% to 21% for Kasich, and 11% for Cruz. He also has a majority in the city itself at 52% to 37% for Kasich, and 9% for Cruz. The race is closer upstate but Trump still has the upper hand with 44% to 27% for Cruz, and 24% for Kasich. All those results bode pretty well for Trump winning the vast majority of the state's Congressional Districts."...

"Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,403 New York voters, including 663 likely Democratic primary voters and 483 likely Republican primary voters between April 7th and 10th. The margin of error is +/-2.6% overall, +/-3.8% for the Democrats and +/-4.5% for the Republicans. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel."


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