News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Trump at 47 has 20 point lead over Republican field in Maryland and leads in all parts of the state, Monmouth Poll, April 10-12, 2016. Maryland withholds 14 delegates from voters which it terms 'at large' or reserved for 'top Republican Party officials'-Politico

Trump 47
Kasich 27
Cruz 19

Poll dates April 10-12, 2016. 301 Registered Likely Maryland RPVs, landline and cell phone, 5.7 error margin. Trump leads opponents in both men and women, and in support across Republican spectrum of ideologies, very conservative, conservative, and moderate. Poll
4/13/16, "Poll: Trump positioned to sweep Maryland delegates," Politico, Nick Gass

"Donald Trump is poised to claim all of Maryland's 38 Republican delegates, if his dominant lead in a new Monmouth University poll out Wednesday is a reliable indicator.

Nearly half of those likely to vote in the state's April 26 primary — 47 percent — said they would support Trump, while 27 percent said they will vote for Ohio Gov. John Kasich and 19 percent said they will support Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

Trump leads in all congressional districts, though by larger margins in the two eastern districts bordering the Chesapeake Bay, where he leads Kasich 54 percent to 24 percent and just 11 percent for Cruz, and in two western districts, where he holds a 44 percent to 25 percent advantage over the Ohio governor and 23 percent for Cruz. In the remaining districts along the Baltimore-Washington corridor, Trump's lead is smaller, with 43 percent to Kasich's 31 percent and Cruz's 20 percent.

Comments from Maryland's Republican Gov. Larry Hogan that he would not like to see Trump as the party's nominee also appear to have held little sway among respondents. Just 53 percent said they had heard of those remarks, and of those who had heard, 83 percent said it would have no impact on whom they would support in the primary....

Maryland awards its 38 delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district and statewide: Twenty-four delegates are awarded by congressional district, and there are 11 statewide at-large delegates, in addition to three automatic slots for the state's top Republican Party officials.

Monmouth conducted the poll via landlines and cellphones from April 10-12, surveying 301 voters likely to participate in the April 26 primary, drawn from a list of registered Republican voters who voted in the last two primary elections, in one of the last two general elections or who registered to vote since the 2014 midterm election. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points."


Comment: Monmouth Poll in link provided doesn't include qualitative results for individual candidates that are described in its narrative. Support for individual candidates among men, women, very conservative, conservative, moderate, and other characteristics aren't included in poll questions. These traits are only mentioned in a single number describing the group polled, eg. page 4, 53% male, 47% female, very conservative 9.5%, somewhat conservative 10.4%, liberal/moderate 9.8%.


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