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Friday, April 22, 2016

Colorado Republican Primary voters prefer Trump in Magellan Strategies poll, April 5-6, 2016. Trump support is driven and distinguished by voters who care most deeply about stopping illegal immigration, followed by national security. Cruz voters are less motivated by these two issues. Poll shows disconnect between Col. delegates and far broader field of 350,000-400,000 likely Colorado primary voters

Trump 44
Cruz 34
Kasich 17

April 5-6, 2016, 609 Colorado likely Republican primary voters, automated poll, topline, crosstabs to be released within next week

4/20/16, "The Donald Trump Effect: Not a Politician and Dominating on Immigration," Magellan Strategies, David Flaherty, Colorado

"For our clients here in Colorado, there is very little public research focused on how likely Republican Primary voters view the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. For our clients around the country, there is a lack of public research that attempts to truly understand the factors that are motivating Republican Primary voters to support Donald Trump.

We decided to fill both voids at once by fielding a 609n automated survey (April 5th-6th) of likely Republican Primary voters in Colorado This survey was fielded and paid for by Magellan Strategies alone, and not paid for by any candidate, campaign, committee, independent expenditure group or individual.

We are beginning to release the results today, and will continue to release our findings throughout the next week, with no agenda other than to provide valuable information about the political landscape within the Republican Party to anyone who is interested. Below are two key findings on the race for the Republican Presidential nomination among Colorado Republicans:

Republican Primary Voters Prefer Donald Trump Over Ted Cruz

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If a Republican Presidential Primary Election were to take place in Colorado, 44% of likely voters would vote for Donald Trump, 34% support Ted Cruz, 17% support John Kasich and 5% are undecided. When asked to choose between only Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, 48% support Trump and 42% support Cruz, and 10% are undecided. These results are interesting in light of the results at the Republican State Convention where Ted Cruz won all 34 delegates awarded. What the results show is a potential disconnect between the more dedicated group of delegates who participated in the state convention and the far broader group of 350,000 to 400,000 Republicans who would typically vote in a primary election.

What Are the Factors Driving Support for Donald Trump?

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Simply put, support for Donald Trump is being driven by his dominance among the 22% of voters that believe stopping illegal immigration is the top issue. Among those voters, 


26% support Ted Cruz.   

Additionally, of the 20% of respondents that chose “National Security Issues” as the top issue, 

40% support Donald Trump and 
27% support Ted Cruz. 

To summarize, on each of the top two issues, Donald Trump holds a double-digit lead over Ted Cruz, including a substantial 23-point lead on the issue of stopping illegal immigration. 

Beyond the observations of the ballot test by specific issue preference, we asked Trump supporters an open-ended verbatim question why they are supporting him. Below are a few representative examples:


While many verbatim responses did touch on specific issues like immigration or the economy, there is also a very clear desire among these Republican Primary voters for someone different. They are tired of politicians – even politicians from their own party – and they do not view the fact that Donald Trump has never held elected office as a problem. Quite the opposite, it is actually appealing to these voters when they compare Donald Trump to Ted Cruz. 
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Note: The full toplines and crosstabs will be released with our final blog post regarding this survey next week.

Please direct any questions regarding the survey results to David Flaherty at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or Courtney Gibbon at cgibbon@magellanstrategies.com, or call our office at (303) 861-8585."




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I'm the daughter of an Eagle Scout (fan of the Brooklyn Dodgers and Mets) and a Beauty Queen.