News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

New poll shows Indiana incumbent Republican Governor Mike Pence in virtual tie with Democrat challenger-Indianapolis Star (Since poll was taken, a Libertarian candidate has been announced. In 2012 Libertarian candidate polled 3.9%-Howey)

Poll dates April 18-21, 2016.

4/26/16, "New poll: John Gregg, Mike Pence are virtually tied," Indianapolis Star, Madeleine Buckley

"A new WTHR/Howey Politics poll shows that Republican Gov. Mike Pence is essentially tied with Democrat challenger John Gregg among Indiana voters, setting up what appears to be a competitive rematch in November.

The poll released Tuesday has Pence leading in a general election 49 percent to Gregg's 45 percent, with 5 percent still undecided. Pence's narrow lead falls within the poll's 4.3 percent margin of error.

Pence overwhelmingly leads Gregg in the counties surrounding Indianapolis, 59 percent to 34 percent. Gregg, meanwhile, has a significant lead with women voters, 52 percent to Pence's 41.

In other areas, the two are within the margin of error of the poll, conducted April 18-21.

Gregg has a 4 percent edge on Pence with independent voters. The poll also shows that Gregg leading in two population areas: Indianapolis and northwest Indiana.

The poll comes after a rocky year for Pence, a social conservative whose support of religious freedom legislation last year, and a law that added abortion restrictions earlier this year, thrust his first term into controversy and set up a rematch of 2012's close race.

​Gregg has echoed former Gov. Mitch Daniels in calling for a truce on what he characterized as divisive social issues. He said he would have vetoed the abortion bill, which, among other things, bans abortions if one is sought due to a fetal disability, and he has called for statewide civil rights protections for LGBT Hoosiers.

Gregg out-raised Pence in the first quarter of the year, drawing in $1.9 million to Pence's $1.5 million.

With $7.7 million, though, Pence has more cash on hand than Gregg, who has $5.1 million.

Pence is running with Eric Holcomb, a longtime political operative who replaced Sue Ellspermann as lieutenant governor in March."

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4/26/16, "WTHR/Howey Politics Poll: Gov. Pence becomes a polarizing figure," Howey Politics Indiana, Brian A. Howey  
......
NASHVILLE, Ind. – "Gov. Mike Pence has become one of the most, if not the most, polarizing governor in modern times. The WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll shows that Pence will be in a dog fight with Democrat John Gregg, leading him in a general election head-to-head 49-45% with a mere 5% undecided. It is a virtual mirror image of the final 2012 results. The poll by Public Opinion Strategies (April 18-21, 500 likely voters, with two sets of over samples of Democrats (479) and Republicans (507), with a 4.3 +/-% error rate) was taken prior to Indiana Libertarian Party selecting Rex Bell as its nominee on Saturday. In recent elections, the Libertarian Rupert Boneham polled 3.9% in 2012

while Andy Horning had 2.1% in 2008. Bell will probably shave at least a couple of percentage points away from Pence.
  
Mining down below the top lines, Pence is upside down with Hoosier voters. His approval stands at 44% with 41% disapproving, terrible numbers for an incumbent governor. With female voters, Pence trails Gregg 52-41%, and independent women voters 54-40, following a trend from September 2012 when he led Gregg among women by 13% in a Howey DePauw Poll, before losing the gender in the general election by 5%. This comes after Pence dropped Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann from the ticket, replacing her with Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb. While Pence is getting 84% of the Republican vote, in another eye-popping number he is leading Gregg in the Indianapolis doughnut counties by only 59-34%. “That’s the most Republican area of the state,” said pollster Gene Ulm, who has been polling Indiana annually since 1996 for the Indiana Realtors. “Not only is it the most Republican, it is the most suburban, wealthiest part of the state. It is less religious, more mainline Republican. He’s just cross-pressured those folks.”
  
Gregg leads Pence among independent voters by 4%. Among moderate voters, Pence is sideways at 28%/58%. Gregg leads in only two DMAs in the state, Indianapolis 49-47%, and the west (which includes The Region) 47-43%. Pence leads in the Fort Wayne market 62-32%. Of the undecided voters, Pence’s fav/unfavs stand at 9/21%. “They are not going to go his way,” Ulm said. 
.......
The right track/wrong track numbers for Indiana are also troubling for Pence, standing at 44% right, 45% wrong track, including 29% of Republicans. The poll results show 62% of Republicans felt the state was headed in the right direction while 28% felt otherwise. Only 24% of Democratic voters said Indiana was on an upward trajectory while 71% felt the state was on a downswing."
 





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