News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Trump takes lead in Iowa, up 11 points per Monmouth Poll, Jan. 23-26, Sa-Tu. Now at 30, Trump has 7 point lead over Ted Cruz and Republican field in poll of 500 likely to participate in Feb. 1 Iowa caucus

Trump 30
Cruz 23
Rubio 16
Carson 10
Bush 4
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Paul 3
Christie 2
Fiorina 2

Jan. 23-26, 2016 poll (Sat.-Tues.), 500 likely Iowa Feb. 1 Republican caucus participants. Poll used land lines and cell phones, 4.4 error margin

1/27/16, "Trump takes Caucus lead," Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray. "Cruz in second"

"Trump’s support has grown substantially from 19% last month. The current result is Trump’s best showing in any Monmouth Iowa caucus poll since he entered the race....

Trump does better among those who do not have a history of taking part in party elections. This includes 44% support among registered Republicans who are general election voters and 50% among registered independents who say they will attend their local Republican caucus on Monday. Rubio comes in second among non-primary GOP voters at 20% with Cruz at 13%. Rubio also places second among independents who will caucus at 14% with Cruz at 10%....

The current poll estimates turnout will be approximately 170,000 voters, which would far surpass the 122,000 record GOP turnout from four years ago. Increasing the poll’s turnout projection to 200,000 voters widens Trump’s lead to 32% over 21% for Cruz, with Rubio at 16% and Carson at 9%. Decreasing the turnout projection to 130,000 voters, which would still be a record level, puts the race in a tie at 26% for Trump and 26% for Cruz, with Rubio at 15% and Carson at 12%....

Nearly half (48%) of likely caucusgoers say they are completely decided on who they will support, which is up significantly from 20% who said the same last month.... 
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One thing Trump still has going for him is that 6-in-10 GOP voters in Iowa would be content to see him as their party’s nominee – including 29% who would be enthusiastic about this outcome and 31% who would be satisfied."...(p. 2)
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p, 3, Key demographics:
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Very conservative: Cruz 32, Trump 27, Rubio 15, Carson 10
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Somewhat conservative: Trump 34, Cruz 16, Rubio 14, Carson 11
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Moderate GOP caucus goers: Trump 29, Rubio 21, Bush 10, Cruz 7, Carson 7

Evangelical voters: Cruz 32, Trump 25

Non-Evangelical voters: Trump 36, Cruz 12, Rubio 15

Tea Party supporters: Cruz 41, Trump 27

Non-Tea Party supporters: Trump 33, Rubio 19, Cruz 11

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Jan. 23-26, 2016 poll, Sat.-Tues., 500 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers, 4.4 error margin, land lines and cell phones.

1/27/16, "Poll: Trump has edge over Cruz in Iowa," Politico, Nick Gass

"Donald Trump holds a seven-point edge over Ted Cruz among likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, according to the results of the latest Monmouth University poll released Wednesday afternoon.

In the survey, conducted largely before Trump announced his boycott of Thursday's debate on Fox News, he surged 11 points from last month in the same poll to 30 percent, while the Texas senator remained static at 23 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finished in third place with 16 percent, followed by Ben Carson with 10 percent. No other candidates received double-digit support, with 3 percent undecided among those candidates.

Nearly nine-in-10 likely caucus participants (86 percent) said they have either completely decided (48 percent) or indicated a strong preference (38 percent). Meanwhile, 7 percent indicated a slight preference, and 8 percent said they were undecided in that category. Among Trump voters, 54 percent said they have set their preference on the Manhattan billionaire, while 60 percent of Cruz backers said they are solidly committed.

Of the 45 percent who said they had been asked to caucus for a candidate, a plurality of 25 percent said they had been contacted personally by Cruz, followed by 17 percent for Rubio and 13 percent for Trump. Otherwise, 55 percent said they had not been contacted. Among those who have been contacted, 28 percent are Cruz supporters and 25 percent are Trump supporters. But among those who have not been contacted, 35 percent said they will caucus for Trump, compared to 19 percent for Cruz.

A little more than half — 54 percent — of likely caucus participants said they will be going to their caucus with someone else, while 42 percent said they are going alone. Among those going with someone else, Trump and Cruz split with 27 percent. But for those saying they will go alone, Trump leads 33 percent to 20 percent. “Turnout is basically what separates Trump and Cruz right now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in a statement. Trump’s victory hinges on having a high number of self-motivated, lone wolf caucusgoers show up Monday night.”
 
The top candidates' favorability ratings all took a hit over the last month, with Trump falling by a net total of 7 points, Cruz by a net total of 20 points and Rubio by 14 points.

But asked how they would feel about Trump becoming the Republican nominee, 60 percent said they would be either enthusiastic (29 percent) or satisfied (31 percent), with 39 percent who would be dissatisfied (20 percent) or upset (19 percent). Likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers indicated a slight preference for Cruz or Rubio as the nominee in terms of satisfaction, however, For Cruz, 23 percent indicated enthusiasm, 44 percent satisfaction, 21 percent dissatisfaction and 9 percent upset. In the case of Rubio, just 18 percent said they would be enthusiastic but 49 percent would be satisfied, while 21 percent said they would be dissatisfied and 7 percent upset. Roughly half would be upset or dissatisfied if former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush became the nominee.

Asked whether they had heard of Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad's remark that he hoped Cruz would lose the state's caucus because of his position on ethanol subsidies, 88 percent said they were aware, but just 17 percent said it would not make them less likely to support Cruz and 67 percent said it would have no impact. Fifteen percent said it would make them more likely to back Cruz.

The poll was conducted from Jan. 23-26 via landlines and cellphones, surveying 500 Iowa registered voters who say they are likely to participate in the Republican caucus on Monday, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The random sample was gathered from those who voted in at least one of the last two state primary elections, voted in both 2012 and 2014, or who have registered to vote within the last year."

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