Above, 1/30/16, Trump plane as it approaches Dubuque, Iowa for rally: "Trump Force One just flew by the hangar in Dubuque Iowa. The crowd loved it." Jenna Johnson twitter, Washington Post reporter
Above, 1/30/16, Trump rally in Dubuque: "Donald J. Trump spoke at a campaign event at the Dubuque Regional Airport in Iowa on Saturday. Credit Damon Winter/The New York Times."
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1/30/16, Trump leads final Iowa poll before caucus:
Trump 28
Cruz 23
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Paul 5
Christie 3
Bush 2
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
Trump leads Cruz by 5 points in final Iowa poll before caucuses, Jan. 26-29, 2016, (Wed-Sat), Des Moines Register, Bloomberg. 'Trump inspiring new interest in Republican caucuses.' 602 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants. 4% error margin. "Supporters of Trump are the most decided," 71% say their decision is final. Telephone interviews. Link to poll.
1/30/16, "Trump Overtakes Cruz in Final Iowa Poll Before Caucuses," Bloomberg, John McCormick
"Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz in the final days before Iowa's caucuses, with the fate of the race closely tied to the size of Monday evening's turnout, especially among evangelical voters and those attending for the first time, a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows.
The findings before the first ballots are cast in the 2016 presidential nomination race shows Trump with the support of 28 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by 23 percent for the Texas senator and 15 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.
The billionaire real estate mogul leads Cruz among those who say they definitely plan to attend, 30 percent to 26 percent. With the less committed—those who say they'll probably attend—Trump also beats Cruz, 27 percent to 21 percent.
“Trump is leading with both the inner core of the caucus universe and the fringe—that’s what any candidate would want," said longtime Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey for the news organizations.
Read the poll questions and methodology here.
The poll's findings are based on 47 percent of those likely to attend considering themselves evangelical or born again Christians. When re-weighted as a scenario test for the higher evangelical turnout seen in 2012 entrance polls, the race is closer, with 26 percent for Trump and 25 percent for Cruz.
A Trump victory could significantly boost his chances of winning his party's nomination, while a second-place finish for Cruz would be a major setback for a candidate who has invested heavily in Iowa and enjoyed strong support from evangelical Christians who form a large part of the state’s electorate. Trump is dominating in polling in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the two states that follow Iowa in the nomination calendar.
Just two days before the first-in-the-nation caucuses, the race remains fluid, even after hundreds of campaign stops in Iowa, tens of millions of dollars of advertising and seven nationally televised debates....
At the time of his departure from the race in September, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker called on other candidates to also drop out, so that an establishment candidate could emerge with enough support to challenge Trump. Yet the combined support of candidates in that lane—Rubio, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Ohio Governor John Kasich and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie—is still less than Trump or Cruz.
Support for Rubio, who has emerged as the leading establishment candidate, remained flat as the caucuses near. In fact, over the four days of the survey, his support dropped the last two days.
Supporters of Trump are the most decided among the top three candidates, with 71 percent saying their mind is made up, compared to 61 percent for Cruz and 47 percent for Rubio. Trump also leads with most demographic groups measured by the poll, including those without college degrees, moderates and Catholics.
The poll's findings suggest Trump is inspiring new interest in the Republican caucuses: 40 percent of those in the survey say they'll be attending for the first time, the highest number recorded by the survey this election cycle. The last Iowa Poll before the 2012 caucuses showed 27 percent first-time caucus-goers.
Nearly one-third of Cruz’s supporters say they’d be attending for the first time, compared to half of Trump's supporters who say they'll be going for the first time, suggesting he has a greater challenge in turning out his supporters because veteran caucus-goers tend to be more reliable....
On candidate traits tested, Trump won on almost every question. He beats Cruz on being
most feared by U.S. enemies (50 percent to 21 percent),
potential to bring about needed change (37 percent to 21 percent),
being a strong leader (32 percent to 23 percent),
prospects for winning a general election (35 percent to 24 percent) and
keeping "your family safest" (28 percent to 24 percent).
Cruz beats Trump on having the "greatest depth of knowledge and experience" (26 percent to 17 percent), as well as being respected by leaders of friendly countries (20 percent to 16 percent).
Two dramatic moves in the final weeks of the Iowa race appeared to make little difference. A plurality—46 percent—say they didn't care that Trump skipped the debate in Des Moines this week, while Iowa Governor Terry Branstad’s plea to defeat Cruz failed to sway 77 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers....
The survey, conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer and Co. of West Des Moines, Iowa, included 602 likely Republican caucus participants and 602 likely Democratic caucus participants. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points."...
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"Methodology," Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register Poll: Telephone interviews. (No mention which kind of telephone, ie land line v cell phone)
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"Jan. 30 (Bloomberg)—The Iowa Poll, conducted January 26-29 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 602 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 3,019 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list."...
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