News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Trump now more than double Republican field in North Carolina, Jan. 18-19, 2016 PPP poll. Trump 38, Cruz 16. Trump also has most committed supporters, 65% will definitely vote for him-Public Policy Polling

Trump 38
Cruz 16
Rubio 11
Carson 8
Bush 6
Huckabee 6
Christie 4
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2
Santorum 1

Jan. 18-19, 2016 poll, 433 Registered Likely Republican Primary Voters, 80% landline, 20% internet, 4.7 error margin

1/20/16, "Trump Keeps Gaining in NC; Clinton Maintains Huge Lead," Public Policy Polling, Tom Jensen, Raleigh, NC

"North Carolina was the first place polling ever found Donald Trump leading the Republican Presidential race, and he just keeps getting stronger. PPP's newest poll finds him at 38% to 16% for Ted Cruz, 11% for MarcoRubio, 8% for Ben Carson, 6% each for Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, 4% for Chris Christie, 3% each for Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul, 2% for John Kasich, and 1% for Rick Santorum.

Trump's support is up 5 points from a month ago when he was at 33%. The only other candidate who's seen a real gain in their support is Huckabee, who's climbed from 2% to 6%. The main hopeful dropping is Ben Carson, who's fallen from 14% to 8%. Besides Carson the only person to see their support decline by more than a point is Marco Rubio, who's dropped 3 points from 14% to 11%.

Perhaps the most striking finding from this poll is that not only does Trump lead the GOP field, he also has the highest favorability rating of any of the candidates in it. 62% see him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion. No one else has over a 60% favorability- Huckabee comes closest at 58/21. Trump also has the most committed supporters- 65% say they will definitely vote for him compared to 54% for Rubio, 50% for Cruz, 38% for Huckabee, and 33% each for Bush and Carson among the top candidates in the state. 

By the time North Carolina votes the field is likely to have contracted to a smaller number of candidates. We find everywhere that a smaller field would reduce Trump's advantage, and that's true in North Carolina as well, but he's up by so much right now that it still leaves him with a comfortable lead. In a 4 way field Trump would get 41% to 24% for Cruz, 15% for Rubio, and 13% for Bush. In a 3 way field Trump would get 43% to 27% for Cruz, and 18% for Rubio. In heads to heads Trump leads Cruz 49/41, Rubio 52/37, and Bush 59/29."... 

Trump leads across GOP ideologies: very conservative, somewhat conservative, and moderate:

"Trump and Cruz are very closely matched among voters on the right, with Trump getting 30% among 'very conservative' voters to 27% for Cruz. But Trump thumps Cruz with 'somewhat conservative' voters (42/15) and especially with moderates (43/2). Beyond that Trump's support is very steady with the key groups we track- he's at 39% with women, 39% with younger voters, 37% with men, and 35% with seniors.... 
Republicans are favored for the general election in North Carolina, although the match ups are close. Marco Rubio does the best against Hillary Clinton, leading her by 5 at 47/42. Carson leads Clinton 47/44, Cruz leads her 46/43, and Bush and Trump each have 45/43 advantages. The GOP field all leads Bernie Sanders as well- it's a 43/38 advantage for Cruz, 44/40 for Carson, 43/39 for Rubio, 45/43 for Trump, and 42/41 for Bush....

Full results here"

"Public Policy Polling surveyed 948 registered voters, including 461 likely Democratic primary voters and 433 likely Republican primary voters, on January 18th and 19th. The margin of error is+/-3.2% for the overall sample, +/-4.6% for the Democrats and +/-4.7% for the Republicans. 80%of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel."

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Added: How to vote in North Carolina primary:

***Last day to register to vote in 2016 North Carolina primaries is Feb. 19. Early voting begins March 3. Last day to request absentee ballot is March 8. Final NC primary day is March 15:

1/20/16, "What you need to know about voting in the 2016 primary," WRAL.com

"Register to vote: Voters who are not already registered have until Feb. 19 to get their name on the voter rolls for the March 15 primary. Current state law has eliminated same day registration during the early voting period, but according to the State Board of Elections the "'same-day registration' process is currently permitted due to a preliminary injunction granted under a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, but this option remains the subject of ongoing litigation in federal court." In other words, the option remains available during early voting, for the time being, but could go away depending on when the court makes a final ruling**. Same day registration is not available on Election Day....

Vote by mail: Local boards of elections will start sending out by-mail absentee ballots next Monday. Voters have until 5 p.m. March 8 to request an absentee ballot. Voting by mail is a two-step process. Voters must first fill out a ballot request form and return it to their local board of elections. The local board will then send back voting materials....

In-person early voting: The period for what was once called "one-stop" voting begins on March 3 statewide, although specific times, days and locations vary by county. The last day of early voting is March 12.


In virtually all counties, the local board of elections office is an early voting location. Some larger counties, such as Wake and Durham counties, have regional satellite locations for those who want to vote early.


As they will be on primary day, voters will be asked to show photo identification. According to the State Board of Elections, acceptable forms of ID include:

  • A driver's license issued by the North Carolina Division of Motor Vehicles, including a learner's permit or a provisional license. IDs that are four years out of date may still be used.
  • A current passport issued by the United States.
  • A veteran's ID card issued by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. A veteran's card with an expiration date must be unexpired. Those without an expiration date are also acceptable.
  • A United States military ID card issued by the Department of Defense.
  • A tribal ID card for a federally recognized tribe or a tribal ID card for a state-recognized tribe approved by the State Board of Elections.
  • A driver's license or identification card issued by another state or the District of Columbia. In order to use this card, the voter must have registered to vote 90 days or fewer prior to the election in question.

There are exceptions to the voter ID requirement, most prominently a feature that allows voters to declare they had a "reasonably impediment" to obtaining a photo ID....

As noted above, same day registration is currently available during the One Stop period thanks to a federal court order. However, that status could change depending on how the court rules in pending voting cases.

Election Day: The primary is March 15. On election days, voters are asked to cast their ballots at a local precinct.

As of early January, there was conflicting information on the state board's website. However, the correct information reads:


"Voters who appear on Election Day in the correct county but in the improper precinct may cast a provisional ballot, which will be counted for all contests in which the voter was eligible to participate. This 'out-of-precinct voting' is currently permitted due to a preliminary injunction granted under a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, but this option remains the subject of ongoing litigation in federal court. Please check back at this website for updates.  Click here to locate your assigned precinct polling location.


As with the same-day registration rules, election officials say voters would be better off not needing take advantage of the lingering out-of-precinct voting rules because they could change once the federal courts make a ruling.


The voter ID rules for Election Day, and exceptions, are the same as for the early voting period.



"Work with our precinct officials. They're community volunteers," he said, acknowledging the voter ID requirement is controversial for some. "They didn't make the law. They're just trying to make democracy happen.""



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