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Sunday, January 17, 2016

Trump South Carolina lead increases per Real Clear Politics as of Jan. 17, 2016. Includes results of Jan. 15, 2016 post debate South Carolina poll

1/17/2016, "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary," Real Clear Politics



















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Real Clear Politics links to 1/17/16 post-debate poll results as reported by Augusta Chronicle:

Trump 32
Cruz 18
Bush 13
Rubio 11
Carson 9
Christie: 4%
Fiorina: 3%
Huckabee: 2%
Kasich: 2%
Paul: 2%
Santorum: 1%


Poll date Jan. 15, 2016, the day after the GOP debate, included 683 "likely GOP presidential primary voters in South Carolina." Poll used "both IVR phone and mobile devices" and has a 3.7% error margin.

1/17/16, "Poll shows possible momentum for Bush in South Carolina while Trump still leads," savannahnow.com, Sarita Chourey, Columbia

"Donald Trump continues to lead among likely GOP presidential primary voters in South Carolina, although former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has risen to third place, according to a poll conducted by OpinionSavvy for the Morris News Service/InsiderAdvantage.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz trailed Trump’s 32 percent with 18 percent, while Bush climbed to third place with 13 percent.

The poll involved 683 people and was conducted on (Friday) Jan. 15, the same day South Carolina’s senior senator and former presidential hopeful Lindsey Graham endorsed Bush. The debate in North Charleston, S.C., took place Thursday, and 37 percent surveyed by OpinionSavvy said Trump won the debate.
The poll, released Saturday, showed U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 11 percent, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 9 percent.

Candidates with less than 5 percent: N.J. Gov. Chris Christie, former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.

“Most interesting was Jeb Bush’s leap to third place in the South Carolina contest,” said InsiderAdvantage founder/Opinion Savvy analyst Matt Towery.

It has been my belief that one ‘establishment’ Republican will survive to take on Trump and Cruz in South Carolina.”

He called Bush’s lead over Rubio “tenuous.” 

“It may be the first glimpse of some momentum for the Bush camp,” Towery said.

He said South Carolina has shown its willingness to go for the more “establishment” type of candidate in some elections, pointing to U.S. Sen. John McCain over Huckabee in 2008, but he said that in recent years the state has grown far more inclined to back a more “populist conservative” type such as Newt Gingrich in 2012.

In 2012, South Carolina GOP voters broke their decades-long streak of choosing the Republican candidate who eventually became the party’s presidential nominee. Mitt Romney, not Gingrich, was ultimately the nominee."...


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Added: Not reported in above Augusta Chronicle article linked by Real Clear Politics, the poll's founder and analyst, Matt Towery, said Trump led among all age groups, and Bush was judged "worst" in the debate:

1/17/16, "Trump Holds Lead in South Carolina; Cruz in Second as Bush Moves Up to Third In Contest," Southern Political Report, by admin. "Chairman and Founding Publisher, Matt Towery"

"Analysis by InsiderAdvantage founder/Opinion Savvy analyst Matt Towery:... 

"Trump led among all age groups but does better with the youngest of voters (40%). The poll confirms that Donald Trump is the force to be reckoned with in South Carolina. He has led in our prior surveys and his lead expanded a bit after the debate. Cruz, as expected, is giving Trump his closest challenge albeit a somewhat distant one at the moment.... 

"As for the debate, Trump scored big with viewers in South Carolina leading his closest opponent, Cruz, by 14 points. When asked who performed the worst, Bush took 'the prize' with 27% and John Kasich receiving a dubious second place 17% for worst performance.""...

Entire Matt Towery remarks in Southern Political Report, 1/17/16:

"“Trump leads in the poll among respondents who describe themselves as ‘very conservative’ but by only six points over Cruz. But Trump’s lead over Cruz widens among those who say they are ‘somewhat conservative’– he receives 33% versus 15% for Cruz and Bush. Trump led among those who said they were moderate but with Bush and Rubio receiving solid second place percentages. Trump led among all age groups but does better with the youngest of voters (40%).

The poll confirms that Donald Trump is the force to be reckoned with in South Carolina. He has led in our prior surveys and his lead expanded a bit after the debate. Cruz, as expected, is giving Trump his closest challenge– albeit a somewhat distant one at the moment.

“Most interesting was Jeb Bush’s leap to third place in the South Carolina contest. It has been my belief that one “establishment” Republican will survive to take on Trump and Cruz in South Carolina. Bush’s lead over Marco Rubio is tenuous but it is nevertheless a lead. It may be the first glimpse of some momentum for the Bush camp. South Carolina has shown its willingness to go for the more “establishment” type candidate in some contests (McCain over Huckabee in 2008) but in recent years has grown far more inclined to support the more “populist conservative” type such as Newt Gingrich in 2012.

“As for the debate, Trump scored big with viewers in South Carolina leading his closest opponent, Cruz, by 14 points. When asked who performed the worst, Bush took ‘the prize’ with 27%
and John Kasich receiving a dubious second place 17% for worst performance.”"

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Jan. 15, 2016 South Carolina poll results were also reported on 1/17/16 by South Carolina publication, The State: "Poll: Trump still leading in SC, Bush rising"
 




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