Poll date Jan. 19, 2016. 771 "high efficacy primary Republican voters in Arizona." Automated telephone poll. Only one question asked.
1/20/16, "Exclusive: Big lead for Donald Trump in Arizona GOP race, Ted Cruz second," Phoenix Business Journal, Mike Sunnucks
"Donald Trump holds a sizable lead among Arizona Republicans, according to a new poll.
Trump gets 38.3 percent in the Arizona survey of 771 voters by pollster Michael Noble’s MBQF Consulting.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is second with 15.6 percent giving Trump close to a 23-point lead in the Grand Canyon State.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is third with 11.4 percent followed by Ben Carson (7.1 percent) and Jeb Bush (7 percent).
Noble said no other GOP candidate gets more than 5 percent, and 10 percent of voters polled are undecided.
Trump has touted his private sector and real estate experience in his bid for U.S. president.
Arizona voters have liked a business background in the past electing former Cold Stone Creamery CEO Doug Ducey in 2014 and businessman and real estate developer Fife Symington in the 1990s in gubernatorial elections.
Trump has made two campaign stops in the Phoenix area since launching his White House bid
Noble said the latest poll shows a decline for Carson and it looks as if those voters, a number of them Evangelical Christians, are going to the hard-charging and controversial Trump.
“The GOP presidential primary in Arizona is now down to a three-way race between Trump, Cruz and Rubio although Trump holds a commanding lead.” Noble said.
The Arizona poll was conducted Jan. 19.
Trump has a 16-point lead nationally with Cruz second and Rubio third, according to an average of recent polls by Real Clear Politics. The closest GOP race right now is in Iowa where Trump has a 2.2 percent lead over Cruz, according RCP averages of the recent polls.
Trump also has double-digit leads in recent polls in South Carolina, Nevada and Florida, according to RCP.
Noble’s Arizona poll and the support for insurgent candidates Trump and Cruz could also give some hope to conservative physician Kelli Ward in her underdog bid against incumbent U.S. Sen. John McCain.
Three outsider candidates (Trump, Cruz and Carson) grab 61 percent in the MBQF Arizona poll." via Scavino twitter
1/21/16, "POLL: AZ GOP Presidential Comes Down to 3-Way Race," MBQF Consulting, Michael Noble, Phoenix, Arizona
Trump, Cruz and Rubio Although Trump More Than Doubles Nearest Rival
The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.
In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 771 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on January 19, 2016, the survey calculates a 3.53% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.
The exact question was phrased, “If the election were held today for the Republican primary for President of the United States, which of the following top 10 candidates, listed in alphabetical order by last name, would you be most likely to vote for?”"...
1/21/16, "2016 Arizona Presidential Republican Primary - Trump 38%, Cruz 16% (MBQF Consulting 1/19)," Huffington Post