Cruz 25
Rubio 18
Carson 8
Bush 4
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
Jan. 24-26, 2016, 450 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, 2 pages from poll. Methodology not stated, but poll mentions "land line frame." Error margin 4.6
1/28/16, "Trump Strong in Three Early States as Clinton and Sanders Battle: Poll," NBC News, Carrie Dann
"With just four days to go until the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Ted Cruz with a seven-point lead among likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers, while Hillary Clinton remains just three points in front of Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, according to a trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
In New Hampshire, where voters will head to the polls on February 9,...Trump still has a double-digit lead over Cruz, who finished second in the Granite State survey.
And in South Carolina, where NBC/WSJ/Marist conducted its first survey of likely primary voters this election season, both Trump and Clinton hold commanding leads....
"Trump is positioned to run the house in these first three states. His supporters are committed and plan to turn out," said Lee Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Will it happen? The answer depends on when or if anti-Trump sentiment will coalesce to interrupt his march to the nomination."...
Iowa
In the Hawkeye State, real estate mogul Donald Trump now leads the GOP pack with 32 percent support from likely GOP caucus-goers. Texas senator Ted Cruz gets 25 percent, Florida senator Marco Rubio has 18 percent, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has eight percent and former Florida governor Jeb Bush has four percent. All other Republican candidates get just two percent backing apiece from likely caucus-goers.
The results are an improvement for Trump, who trailed Cruz 24 percent to 28 percent in the same poll less than three weeks ago....
The Iowa survey of 3,040 adults was conducted January 24 through January 26, 2016. The margin of error for 450 likely Republican caucus-goers is +/- 4.6 percentage points. The margin of error for 426 likely Democratic caucus-goers is +/- 4.7 percentage points."...Image above from NBC News
==========
Above, 1/26/16, Trump rally in Iowa City, Iowa: "Audience members wait for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to pass during a campaign event at the University of Iowa Field House, in Iowa City, Iowa, on Jan. 26, 2016." Photo from 1/28/16 article: "At start of campaign, the last gasp of political parties?" McClatchy, David Lightman
"The largest party in America now is no party — with the ranks of people calling themselves independents at the highest level in more than 75 years of polling. The parties do not control the message. People learn about politics from social media instead of traditional means such as mailings or campaign rallies. And the parties are no longer the sole banker of politics. Big-money interests now effectively create shadow parties with extensive networks of donors of their own.
The result: People are tuning out and turning away.
In 2012, average voter turnout for statewide primaries for president, governor and U.S. Senate plunged to its lowest level since the modern primary system became popular in 1972.
“No one likes political parties anymore,” said Jan Leighley, who studies voter behavior at American University, where she is a professor of government. “They no longer have to work through the political process,” added Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute.
It’s a historic change in voter behavior. The Democratic and Republican parties have dominated American politics since the mid-1850s. They grew and prospered as inclusive coalitions that tolerated diverse views for the sake of winning elections and then consolidating power....
“Americans’ attachment to the two major political parties in recent years is arguably the weakest Gallup has recorded since the advent of its polls,” Gallup reported in January.
Just 29 percent called themselves Democrats last year, it found, “making it safe to conclude that the current (number) is also the low point in Gallup polling history.” Republican loyalty was only 1 percentage point above its recent low of 25 percent three years ago. The bloc of independents reached 40 percent in 2011, and it has stayed at or above that level ever since.
The parties’ challenge is clear in states of all sizes. In New Hampshire, site of the first primary election, at least 40 percent register as “undeclared,” meaning they have no formal affiliation with a political party.
In 2014, California had twice as many voters without a party affiliation as it did 20 years earlier. The same year, Florida had 47 percent more independent voters than a decade earlier.
Most indifferent to parties: young Americans. Nearly half the millennials identified as independents in 2014, Pew found, more than the combined total of those willing to be called either Democrats or Republicans.
“I never want to write down that I’m a Republican,” said Rebecca Sorensen, a sophomore at Penn State. She leans Republican but is reluctant to openly identify with the party because she supports abortion rights.
Historically, children adopted their parents’ political views, including identification with the two major parties. Not anymore.
Millennials get information from sources other than from family dinners, neighbors or campaign brochures. If something piques their interest, they turn to Twitter, text messaging, The Skimm and other modern forms of instant communication.
“If I want to know more, I Google it,” said Jayla Akers, a sophomore at Penn State University.
Political parties are seen as too narrowly focused, too interested in keeping incumbents in office.
They gerrymander congressional districts to maximize their chances so that election after election only a handful of House of Representatives races are true contests. Of the House’s 435 seats, 402 incumbents are considered safe bets for re-election this year, said the nonpartisan Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report....
It’s a far cry from freedom from party or faction that the Founding Fathers envisioned.
“This two-party system quashes independent thought and the courage to take a stance on positions and kills the free market of ideas our country was supposed to be founded on,” said Ellen Read, a political activist in New Hampshire.
Parties for generations did welcome differing views and broader membership.
“The Republican Party, both in this state and nationally, is a broad party. There is room in our tent for many views,” Ronald Reagan, then governor of California, said in 1967....
Republicans once had a strong bloc of abortion rights supporters, for example, but in 1976 the party formally included in its platform support for a constitutional amendment “to restore protection of the right to life for unborn children.” It’s now unmistakably the anti-abortion party....
Democrats also were critical of their own tactics....“It’s true that today’s multifaceted political landscape changes the footprint of national parties,” said Democratic Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
But she noted that “in the primaries, we set the rules for the nomination and nothing can replace the unique ability of the national parties to effectively organize and mobilize voters,” and their role in the general election is so detailed it “cannot be replicated externally.”
While independents are gaining clout, so are the big-money groups that now operate as virtual political parties.
Take Freedom Partners, an organization sponsored by brothers Charles and David Koch of Wichita, Kan. Last year, the group committed to spend $889 million on politics and policy in 2015 and 2016....
And the Koch network does more than just spend money. Twice each year it hosts about 400 executives, who pay dues of $100,000 each, for meetings on politics and policies....
Other alternatives to the parties also are gearing up. In that world, everyday voters ask, how can they ever be heard? Not through the Republican or Democrats parties, say increasing numbers of voters.
As Peter White, a cabin manager in Nottingham, New Hampshire, put it, “You feel the two parties both work for Wall Street and don’t care who wins.”"
"This version changes the reference to the rise in independents in California to say voters without a party affiliation."
===========
Among comments to McClatchy article: There's only one party. Media does its part to keep alive the multi-trillion dollar illusion that there are two:
===========
"Rip Torn" Parties, seriously I don't see any parties. I just see the Democrats and the Republicans feigning they are two different parties but in reality they are one in the same. The media keeps up the lie as they dupe the electorate."
"Walter Ziobro It's about time. The Democratic and Republican Parties have essentially been philosophically irrelevant since WW2. Prior to that, the Dems were the party of states rights, free trade, and Southern agrarian interests. The Reps were the party of federalism, protectionism, and Northern industrial interests. Since then, both have morphed so much that each has basically been turned inside out, and upside down. Good riddance to both."
.................
No comments:
Post a Comment