Poll dates, Fed. 24-27, 2016 (W-Sat.). 427 registered Republicans and Republican leaning independents, 5% error margin, land lines and cellphones. Link to CNN/ORC poll
Trump
has expanded his lead [to 49 from 41 in Jan. 2016] over the diminished field to capture the support
of nearly half of Republican voters....
The new survey finds Trump's lead is dominant, and
his support tops that of his four remaining opponents combined. The
businessman tops his nearest competitor by more than 30 points: 49% back
Trump, 16% Marco Rubio, 15% Ted Cruz, 10% Ben Carson and 6% John
Kasich.
Trump's
supporters are incredibly enthusiastic about the coming election, and
largely committed in their support for him. Nearly 8 in 10 say that they
are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous
elections, among Republicans who are not supporting Trump, just 39% say
they are more enthusiastic than in years past. Likewise, 78% of Trump's
backers say they will definitely support him vs. 22% who say they could
still change their minds. Among those backing other candidates, 57% say
they are committed to their chosen candidate.
Trump
is widely viewed as the candidate in the field who would be most
effective at solving the country's problems, 51% vs. 17% for Cruz, 13%
for Rubio and 10% for Carson, and as being best able to handle the
responsibilities of being commander-in-chief, 48% say so, compared with
17% for Cruz and 15% for Rubio. The billionaire is also seen as the one
who best understands the problems facing people like you, 46% Trump vs.
18% Cruz and 15% Rubio....
Asked who of the
five candidates is most honest and trustworthy, 35% name Trump, 22%
Carson-who has largely stayed out of the mudslinging-14% Cruz and
13% Rubio....
The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone February 24-27 among a
random national sample of 1,001 adults. Results for the 418 registered
voters who are Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have a
margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. It is the
same for results among the 427 Republican and Republican-leaning
voters."
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Washington Post article about CNN poll: Trump lead expands, support appears much broader than expected:
2/29/16, "These new Trump poll numbers should absolutely terrify Republicans," Washington Post, Greg Sargent, Plum Line
[Ed. note: How does Washington Post define "Republicans"?]
Trump has wide lead among: college graduates, suburban Republicans, those earning $50,000 or more, and those under age 55:
"From the CNN poll’s internals:
— Trump is dominating among Republicans and GOP leaners who are college graduates, with 46 percent, to 19 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, and nine percent for Kasich.
— Trump is dominating among suburban Republicans, with 51 percent, to 16 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, and six percent for Kasich. As James Hohmann has reported, Rubio’s strategy is heavily focused on winning suburban areas in many Super Tuesday states and beyond.
— Trump is dominating among Republicans who make $50,000 or more, with 50 percent, to 16 percent for Rubio, 15 percent for Cruz, and eight percent for Kasich.
— Trump is dominating among Republicans who are under 55, with 47 percent, to 17 percent for Rubio, 14 percent for Cruz, and five percent for Kasich. (Unfortunately, the samples are too small to break out younger groups.)
These are very crude categories, to be sure. And it’s hard to know how much national numbers such as these tell us about upcoming state contests. But these findings raise at least the possibility that Trump’s appeal is proving much broader among Republican voters than expected. They also suggest the possibility that Rubio may not be able to beat Trump among more mainstream and more educated voters in the manner he must....
The new CNN national poll...finds that Trump has expanded his lead among registered Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters nationally: He has 49 percent; Rubio has 16 percent; Cruz has 15 percent; Ben Carson has 10 percent; and John Kasich has nine percent. Two of the four days of polling were taken after last week’s GOP debate, which was supposed to be a dramatic game-changer for Rubio....
TRUMP DOMINATING IN SOUTHERN STATES: NBC polls released over the weekend find Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in Georgia (30-23-23) and Tennessee (40-22-19). NBC re-contacted close to 30 percent of respondents after last week’s GOP debate, which was supposed to be a huge breakout for Rubio, and found:
Movement in the GOP horserace was negligible, according to the re-contact interviews: Trump, Rubio and Cruz kept about 90 percent of their supporters; Carson kept about 80 percent of his; but Kasich kept only about 60 percent of his backers.Meanwhile, new CBS News polls find Trump leading Cruz and Rubio in Georgia by 40-29-22 and Trump leading Rubio and Cruz in Virginia by 40-27-22. Rubio is making a big play for Virginia, too.
*BUT TED CRUZ LEADS IN TEXAS: The new NBC polling finds Cruz leading Trump and Rubio in Texas by 39-26-16. And the new CBS polling puts it at 42-31-19."...
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