News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Friday, February 5, 2016

Trump at 33 more than double Republican field in New Hampshire, WBZ UMass Amherst poll, reported 2/4/16 by WBZ CBS Local, Boston

Trump 33
Rubio 14
Kasich 10
Cruz 9
Bush 6
Christie 5
Carson 3
Fiorina 3

2/4/16 article doesn't provide dates, but says tune to WBZ on Friday, 2/5/16 at 5pm when they'll "dig deep into the details of the exclusive WBZ/UMass Amherst Poll." 390 likely GOP primary voters, 7.1% margin of error. No link to actual poll.
 
2/4/16, "WBZ-UMass Amherst Poll: Trump, Sanders Lead In NH," boston.cbslocal.com, Jon Keller, 11:04 pm, ET

"It’s been a crazy election so far, and the WBZ/UMass Amherst poll shows it could get crazier in these final days, with 28% of Democrats and a whopping 48% of Republicans saying they might still change their minds before next Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire.

Let’s start with the GOP, where businessman Donald Trump is holding onto a substantial lead with 33%, a 19-point margin over Sen. Marco Rubio at 14% and Ohio Gov. John Kasich with ten percent. Right on their heels: Sen. Ted Cruz with nine percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at six percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with five percent. Dr. Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina each have three percent. (The sample of 390 likely GOP primary voters has a 7.1% margin of error.)
 
For the Democrats, Sen. Bernie Sanders has a 24-point lead over former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, 57-33%. (Sample size: 410 likely Democratic primary voters; 6.6% margin of error.)

These results are consistent with what other polls have been showing in the last few days, but the large number of voters who say they still have an open mind means those rankings could change dramatically.

Starting at 5pm Friday, Feb. 5 on WBZ, we’ll get you closer to what New Hampshire voters are saying they like and dislike about the candidates, what issues are top of mind for them, and we’ll point you toward the keys to understanding where this unpredictable election is headed next, when we dig deep into the details of the exclusive WBZ/UMass Amherst Poll."

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Comment: This article's first sentence sells "whopping" New Hampshire GOP undecideds as 48%, a single number averaged among all candidates, not mentioning that firmness for individual candidates may vary from reported averages (in this case 48%). As an example, a Jan. 26-30, 2016 Franklin Pierce Boston Herald poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters did report firmness for individual candidates and found a "whopping" (to use adjective of above WBZ reporter) 67% of Trump New Hampshire supporters said their choice of Trump is firm, won't change their mind: 

(p. 6) Choice is firm:

Trump 67


Only 33% of Trump New Hampshire supporters in this poll said they might change their mind, well below the "whopping 48% of Republicans" cited by WBZ in its opening sentence. Numerous Republican candidates are still active in New Hampshire and being measured in polls. Only two Democrat candidates are still active in New Hampshire.

Source of 67% Trump choice is firm, page 6: 

Jan. 26-30, 2016 poll dates, 439 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, land line and cell phone interviews, 4.7 error margin. Link to poll.

Trump 38
Cruz 13
Bush 10
Rubio 10
Kasich 8
Christie 5
Fiorina 5
Paul 5
Carson 3
Huckabee 1 


1/31/16, "Franklin Pierce-Herald Poll: Rivals need Iowa win to catch Trump, Sanders in N.H.," Boston Herald, Joe Battenfeld 

"Trump has a massive 25-point advantage over his nearest rival Cruz while Sanders has grown his lead over Clinton to a 57-37 percent margin, according to the poll of likely Granite State primary voters conducted Jan. 26-30....

Trump now gets 38 percent of the vote in New Hampshire — up from 33 percent a week ago— while Cruz has stalled at 13 percent, according to the poll of 439 likely GOP primary voters.

Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are getting 10 percent, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich has dropped to fifth place at 8 percent, according to the poll. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businesswoman Carly Fiorina and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul are winning just 5 percent support, the poll shows."...





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