News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Trump at 35 maintains commanding lead over Republican field nationwide, CBS News poll, Feb. 12-16, 2016, 581 likely GOP primary voters, live interviews via land line and cell phone-CBS News

Trump 35
Cruz 18
Rubio 12
Kasich 11
Carson 6
Bush 4

Poll dates, 2/12-2/16/2016 (F-Tu). Live interviews via land line and cell phone. 581 likely Republican primary voters nationwide, error margin 5%. Link to CBS News poll

2/18/16, "CBS News poll: Trump maintains commanding lead over GOP field," CBS News, Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto, Sarah Dutton

"Donald Trump (35 percent) continues to hold a commanding lead over the rest of the field, with a 17 point lead over his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz (18 percent). John Kasich (11 percent) has now risen to a virtual third-place tie with Marco Rubio (12 percent). Trump leads among nearly every demographic group.

More than half of Republican voters say they may still change their minds about who to support, but two thirds of Trump voters say their minds are made up.

Seven in 10 Republican primary voters want a candidate who will shake up the system, and their top choice for the nomination is Donald Trump. Just one in four want someone who will work within the system.

Donald Trump is also seen as most likely to get things done in Washington, far outpacing his rivals on this measure.

Trump trails Cruz and Rubio on sharing the values of Republican primary voters and on having realistic policies, but half still think he is prepared to be president, and he is widely seen as the most electable candidate of the field. He rates higher than Cruz or Rubio on handling the economy and an international crisis....

There has been little movement among the remaining six Republican candidates, with one notable exception. After a strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, Ohio Governor John Kasich -- who has consistently trailed all the remaining candidates since August -- has shot up to 11 percent, challenging Florida Senator Marco Rubio for third place. Jeb Bush (4 percent) has slipped to last place among the six remaining candidates, behind Ben Carson (6 percent)....

Trump's support cuts across nearly every demographic group in the Republican electorate. He holds a double digit lead among Republicans and independents, men and women, white evangelicals, and Americans of all income levels. He leads among Republican voters of all age and education levels, but does particularly well among voters without college degrees.

Trump also holds a double digit lead among moderates and those who describe themselves as somewhat conservative, and has a five point lead over Ted Cruz among very conservative Republican voters....

Trump is also seen as by far the most electable of the candidates still in the race -- 53 percent of GOP primary voters think that Trump has the best chance of winning in November, and confidence in Trump's chances in the general election has risen considerably over the course of the campaign. In July 2015, only 26 percent of GOP primary voters were confident Trump would win. Even those not backing Trump pick him as the candidate most likely to win in November....

Far more Republican primary voters are very confident in Donald Trump's ability to handle the economy (49 percent) than either Ted Cruz (21 percent) or Marco Rubio (17 percent), and he has a clear, if smaller, advantage over both Cruz and Rubio on handling an international crisis."...

This poll was conducted by telephone February 12-16, 2016 among a random sample of 2,007 adults nationwide, including 1,641 registered voters and 581 registered voters likely to vote in a Republican primary. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers.
The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.
The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus two percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of 581 Republican primary voters could be plus or minus five percentage points. The error for other subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly."



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