Rand Corp. survey: Greatest factor uniting Trump supporters is: “People like me don't have any say about what the government does.” Exceeds all other characteristics including education level, gender, age, race, job status, income, immigration views-Rand Corp., 1/27/16

 

"Figure 6: Percent Change in Odds of Preferring Candidate, if Respondent Agrees with the Statement, "People Like Me Don't Have Any Say""...  

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Survey dates: Dec. 13, 2015-Jan. 6, 2016
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1/27/16, "RAND Kicks Off 2016 Presidential Election Panel Survey," rand.org.blog, by Michael Pollard and Joshua Mendelsohn, commentary

(scroll to parag. after fig. 5): "Among people likely to vote in the Republican primary, people are 86.5 percent more likely to prefer Donald Trump as the first-choice nominee relative to all the others if they “somewhat” or “strongly agree” that “people like me don't have any say about what the government does.” Using statistical techniques, we can conclude that this increased preference for Trump is over and beyond any preferences based on respondent gender, age, race/ethnicity, employment status, educational attainment, household income, attitudes towards Muslims, attitudes towards illegal immigrants, or attitudes towards Hispanics.

The role of “people like me don't have any say…” is not significantly related to preference for Cruz, Rubio, Clinton, or Sanders as the first choice for party nominee (where Clinton and Sanders are rated by likely Democratic primary voters). (See Figure 6.) [Above]...
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Current Survey......... 

 

We surveyed 3,037 members of the ALP between December 13, 2015 and January 6, 2016. As with other surveys, we weight responses to ensure that our results are representative of the U.S. (citizen) population, matching to the 2015 Current Population Survey. This survey comprises the baseline of the PEPS, and these ALP members will continue to be surveyed throughout the election cycle. Administering the baseline survey this early will enhance our ability to say with confidence whether opinions have or have not changed over the course of the campaign once the candidates start advertising, and the nominations become clear. These early measures will also help shed light on when an individual's position influences their choice of candidate, versus when a candidate's position influences an individual's views or position about issues.

Because this is only the baseline wave of PEPS data, the major contribution of the effort — the longitudinal, panel aspect — is yet to be realized. However, even with the initial baseline wave, the PEPS can help shed light on unexplored and underexplored aspects of this election, a few of which are illustrated below."...Chart above from rand.org.blog




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