Feb. 3 poll, 487 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, error margin, 4.9%. UMass Lowell poll. Link to poll.
2/4/16, "Rubio surges to second in New Hampshire poll," The Hill, Bradford Richardson
"Republican presidential hopeful Marco Rubio on Thursday vaulted into second place in a daily tracking poll, but he still trails front-runner Donald Trump by double digits in the New Hampshire primary.
The real estate mogul leads the GOP field, with 36 percent support, according to the WHDH/UMass Lowell poll, followed by the Florida senator, with 15 percent support; Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), with 14 percent support; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, with 8 percent support; and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, with 7 percent support. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie places sixth in the state, with 5 percent support, followed by retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, at 4 percent support, and business executive Carly Fiorina, at 3 percent support.
The daily poll shows a boost for Rubio, who gained 3 points overnight and 7 points since his stronger-than-expected finish in the Iowa caucuses on Monday.
Trump is down 2 points on the heels of his second-place finish in Iowa, the first time the poll has shown the front-runner lose support.
Pollsters interviewed 487 likely Republican voters in New Hampshire for the survey, which has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points."
Jan. 27, 2016 article: Bush "JUMPS" to second at 18. (Trump leads at 35.)
1/27/16, "Bush jumps to second in NH poll," The Hill, Jesse Byrnes
"The former Florida governor has the support of 18 percent of likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State, according to the Emerson College poll released Wednesday morning. Trump holds the lead with 35 percent."...
Added: 44% of New Hampshire voters are independents and could determine Republican primary outcome:
2/3/16, "Hiller Instinct: Independents in New Hampshire could determine the Primary:" Andy Hiller, whdh
Of the nearly 900,000 voters here, 30% are registered Republicans; 26% registered Democrats and 44% independent.
"Independents in New Hampshire take being independent very seriously, and they can have a huge impact, said Dr. Josh Dyck, pollster at UMass Lowell....
What we're seeing is more and more independents taking the Republican ballot, because the Democratic contest is so one-sided, which sided, interestingly could turn out to be good for Hillary Clinton.
Independents are tough to track, said Dr. Dyck. They can vote in either primary, and don't have to decide which one to vote in until election day.
Next Tuesday, after all the votes are counted, don't be surprised if, as independents go, so goes New Hampshire."