News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Trump doubles Republican field in South Carolina at 42, poll dates Feb. 10-12, 2016, CBS You Gov poll

Trump 42
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
Kasich 9
Bush 6
Carson 6

Feb.10-12, 2016 poll dates, Likely South Carolina Republican primary voters. YouGov internet and phone poll, error margin 5.7

2/14/15, "Poll:  South Carolina still solidly for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton," cbs news.com, by Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto, Sarah Dutton

"The CBS News Battleground Tracker poll shows that Donald Trump keeps a large lead in South Carolina, bolstered by support from conservatives and also from evangelical voters, who make up a large share of the electorate here. 

 horseracegopsc-1.jpg

Ted Cruz is in second place, but well behind Trump. Cruz has the support of those who consider themselves very conservative, but trails Trump among all conservatives as well as moderates.

John Kasich has gotten a little bounce out of his surprisingly strong showing in New Hampshire, but he may be limited here by the fact that evangelical voters are not as strongly in support of him as non-evangelicals.

For Trump voters, who have been relatively steadfast in their support over the last few months, the percentage who say they've firmly decided on Trump has increased. Trump's lead among evangelicals is up from January, and he has widened his lead among conservatives, too,.

In a contest marked by divisions among so-called "insiders" and "outsiders," South Carolina Republicans show a strong preference for campaigns running as the latter, and this poll helps illustrate why. By four to one, South Carolina Republicans describe the "establishment" as a bad thing, and few describe it as a group that knows how to get things done.

On the metric of being "prepared" to be president, Trump and Cruz do well, and Jeb Bush and John Kasich do relatively well, but Marco Rubio trails in this regard, suggesting that last week's debate in New Hampshire may have had an impact."...
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Note: Feb. 2016 South Carolina poll expanded to use telephone contact as well as internet, explained below:

"The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
is a panel study based on interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Texas.

The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization. The first wave was fielded between September 3-10, 2015, with 4860 respondents, and the second wave fieldwork was completed between October 15-22, 2015, with 3952 respondents and the third wave between November 15-19, 2015. The fourth wave was fielded between December 13-17, 2015. The majority of the 2nd-4th wave respondents are recontacted panelists. The first 4 waves consist of interviews in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina only. The fifth wave added new interviews in Florida, Georgia, and Texas, and was completed between January 17-21, 2016.  

The sixth wave was fielded only in South Carolina, with interviews completed February 10-12, 2016. Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels. These are "opt-in" panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 22517 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1753 phone recruits.

Full methods and topline are attached here and can also be found here.
Question in Feb. 2016 SC GOP poll:

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Would candidate be part of the solution or part of the problem? pages 51-55
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Asked of SC Republican primary voters about Trump, Cruz, Bush Rubio, And Kasich: Kasich fares worst:

1. Voters say Donald Trump part of the solution 60%, part of the problem 23%, page 51
2. Ted Cruz part of the solution 51%, part of the problem 31%, page 52

3. Jeb Bush seen as only 30% part of the solutionpart of the problem 40%, page 53

4. Marco Rubio part of the problem 40, part of the solution 35%, page 54



 
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