Trump leads in New Jersey at 31, Nov. 9-15, 2015, 13 points ahead of Republican field, Fairleigh Dickinson University poll

Trump 31
Rubio 18
Carson 11
Christie 9
Cruz 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 5
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2 

Nov. 9-15, 2015. 307 self identified NJ registered Republican voters. Error margin on GOP sample 5.6. Landlines and cellphones.

11/18/15, "Governor Christie's Presidential bid loses support of New Jersey Republicans, Donald Trump leads the pack, with Marco Rubio claiming second place among Garden State Republicans,..." Fairleigh Dickinson University, Krista Jenkins

"Support for Governor Chris Christie’s presidential bid has dropped in half among New Jersey Republicans over the last four months. Back in June, 18 percent of registered Republicans said they supported him for his party’s presidential nomination. Today that number is down to nine percent, according to the most recent statewide survey of registered voters in New Jersey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind.

The big vote getter is business magnate and political neophyte, Donald Trump, who attracts the support of 31 percent of Republicans, with Florida Senator Marco Rubio surging to second with the support of 18 percent. Rounding out the list of those in the double digits is Dr. Ben Carson, who registers 11 percent support in New Jersey.

“Our polling consistently shows that Republicans in the Garden State like straight talkers. But Governor Christie’s blunt approach is clearly facing unexpected competition from Donald Trump. And, to the extent that Christie was considered strong among the so-called ‘establishment’ candidates, he now has the rising appeal of Rubio to contend with. The people back home are not supporting their governor as much as he might have expected,” said Krista Jenkins, director of PublicMind and professor of political science....

“With declining support among his base, and the next gubernatorial election beginning to loom, it will be more difficult for Governor Christie to corral the support of Republicans. Recent unexpected losses for Republicans in the New Jersey Assembly only complicate the governor’s tale of electability and bipartisan leadership,” said Jenkins.

The news remains grim regarding perceptions of the state’s health. About a third (32%) say the state is headed in the right direction, with 59 percent who believe the state is doing poorly.       

Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey was conducted by landline and cellular telephone November 9 -15, 2015 among a random statewide sample of 830 self-identified registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 points, including the design effect. [Moe for Republican sample is 5.6].

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

             

Methodology...

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

Landline households are supplemented with a separate, randomly selected sample of cell-phone respondents interviewed in the same time frame. The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of gender, age, education, and race. 427 interviews were conducted on landlines and 403 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University."

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