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Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Trump increases lead in New Hampshire WBUR poll, Nov. 14-15, now ten points ahead of field-Politico

Trump 23
Carson 13
Rubio 13
Cruz 8
Bush 7
Kasich 7 
Christie 6
Paul 5
Fiorina 4
Graham 2
Huckabee 1
Pataki 1
Santorum 1

Nov. 14-15, 2015, 405 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, landline and cellphone, 4.9% error margin. Cross tabs

11/18/15, "Trump extends lead in New Hampshire poll," Politico, Nick Gass

"The Manhattan mogul is at 23 percent, a 5-point increase from last month."

"Donald Trump is widening the gap between himself and his closest rivals in the first-in-the-nation primary, according to the results of a new WBUR poll released Wednesday morning surveying likely New Hampshire voters likely to vote in February's election. But Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is the best-liked candidate.

The Manhattan business mogul took in 23 percent, a 5-point increase from last month, while Ben Carson dropped slightly to 13 percent, down three points. Rubio also earned 13 percent, a 2-point pick-up from the survey conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz earned 8 percent (a 2-point jump), followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 7 percent. For Bush, the results are the same as the last WBUR survey; for Kasich, the latest results represent a 3-point drop in support.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie took in 6 percent (a 2-point decrease), followed by Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 5 percent (a 2-point increase) and Carly Fiorina at 4 percent, also a 2-point decrease. Since September, Fiorina has dropped 7 points. All other candidates earned 2 percent or less support, while 6 percent said they did not know for whom they would cast their ballot.

Carson's favorability numbers also dipped from a net positive of 44 points (63 percent to 19 percent) earlier this month to 29 points (55 percent to 26 percent) in this poll. Overall, Rubio polled highest in that regard this time, 57 percent to 20 percent, up slightly from the last survey....

In the survey, conducted in the two days following the deadly Paris terrorist attacks, voters appeared largely split over expanding American troops in the Middle East. A plurality of 38 percent said the next president should send more troops to the region, while 28 percent said troop levels should remain as they are and 22 percent said the next commander in chief should remove as many as possible.

The survey was conducted Nov. 14-15 via landlines and cellphones, surveying 405 likely voters in the New Hampshire Republican primary, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points."

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11/18/15, WBUR poll

"About the Poll: These results are based on a survey of 405 likely voters in the 2016 New Hampshire Republican Primary. Live telephone interviews were conducted November 14-15, 2015 via both landline and cellphone using conventional registration based sampling procedures. Approximately 9 in 10 respondents are previous primary voters. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/-4.9 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence. The pollwas sponsored by WBUR, a NationalPublic Radiostation in the Boston area."

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Cross tabs

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/1/files/2015/11/Crosstabs-2015-11-WBUR-NH-4.pdf



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