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Thursday, November 12, 2015

Trump and Cruz tied for #1 in Texas and well ahead of remainder of Republican field in University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll, Oct. 30-Nov. 8, 2015

Cruz 27
Trump 27
Carson 13
Rubio 9
Bush 4
Fiorina 4
Paul 4
Huckabee 2
Christie 1
Kasich 1
Santorum 1

Poll dates Oct. 30-Nov. 8, 2015. 542 Texas registered Republicans, error margin 4.21, 4.76 when adjusted for weighting (p. 2). Internet survey.

11/12/15, "UT/TT Poll: Cruz, Trump Tied; Clinton Well Ahead," Texas Tribune, Ross Ramsey

"U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and businessman Donald Trump are in a dead heat for the Republican presidential nomination in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

With four months to go before the March 1 primary, each had the support of 27 percent of likely Republican voters. Surgeon Ben Carson and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida were well back of the leaders at 13 percent and 9 percent, respectively....

The numbers have shifted some since the previous UT/TT survey in June — a poll conducted when a number of official and unofficial exploratory campaigns were still underway....

The two leading Republican candidates in the latest survey — especially Trump — scooped up support that in June was going to two candidates who have since left the race: former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Cruz had 20 percent in that June poll; Trump was back in the dust at 2 percent.

“The summer of Trump had not started when we did the last poll,” Henson said. “He was not really in the race.”...
 
The University of Texas/Texas Tribune internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 8 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points. Among registered voters [542] in Republican primary races, the margin of error is +/- 4.21 percentage points; in Democratic primary races, it is +/- 4.57 percentage points. Numbers in charts might not add up to 100 percent because of rounding." 
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"Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here."

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