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Monday, November 2, 2015

Trump at 27 in latest Florida poll, Oct. 29-30, 2015. Tenth Florida poll in a row withTrump on top-Politico Florida

Trump 27
Rubio 16
Carson 15
Bush 12
Cruz 12
Fiorina 4

"This Florida survey, the 10th in a row finding Trump on top, resembles other recent Florida polls that also show Bush in third or fourth place."...Poll conducted by Randy Nielson, a West Palm Beach Republican consultant who disclosed that he favors Rubio. Poll dates, Oct. 29-30, 2015. Robocalls to telephone landlines only, no cellphone calls, no internet. Sample size of 2047 likely Florida Republican primary voters, 2.2 margin of error. Large sample size and low MOE is said to compensate for exclusive use of landlines.

11/2/15, "Florida poll shows Trump in front, with Bush’s help," Politico Florida beta, Marc Caputo, CapitalNewYork.com, Miami



"Donald Trump remains the clear frontrunner in Florida and, a new poll of likely Republican voters shows, he can partly thank the unlikeliest of people for that: Jeb Bush.

With the former Florida governor in the crowded primary for president, Trump leads with a solid 27 percent support, with Sen. Marco Rubio a distant second at 16 percent, followed by Dr. Ben Carson (15 percent), and Sen. Ted Cruz and Bush (about 12 percent each), according to Viewpoint Florida’s newly released survey of 2,047 likely Republican voters in the state....

“These figures don’t bode well for Jeb or the theory of his electability against Trump,” said Randy Nielsen, a West Palm Beach Republican consultant who conducted the poll and disclosed that he favors Rubio.

“What this poll says to conservatives like me is that if you want to stop Donald Trump, Jeb is not your guy in Florida,” Nielsen said. “The data show it’s Rubio.”

The poll also showed that more than 42 percent of Bush’s voters favored Rubio as a fallback. But fewer than 25 percent of Rubio’s voters wanted Bush as a second choice while about 25 percent said they favored Cruz as their No. 2.

Those results, Nielsen said, show that Bush hurts Rubio — and in doing so helps Cruz and Carson. And that undercut the Bush campaign’s notion that knocking the senator out would help Bush.

“The poll drives a stake in the heart of that theory. It clearly demonstrate they’re barking up the wrong tree,” Nielsen said. “If anything, it’s going to come to a point where they realize or hear the clarion call from the Republican establishment that you’re the problem, Jeb — not Marco.”

This Florida survey, the 10th in a row finding Trump on top, resembles other recent Florida polls that also show Bush in third or fourth place. Reflecting many national surveys, most of the recent Florida polls show that, as Bush has slipped, Carson and Rubio have risen. Now Cruz, on the heels of a strong debate performance Wednesday, might be showing more traction in Florida as well.

The surveys, in addition to the well-publicized staff shakeups and Bush’s shaky debating, underscore the depth of Bush’s troubles. With so much establishment Republican support in his home state, Florida was supposed to be Bush’s base, and his firewall. Now Bush is in danger of getting an honorable mention....

The electorate and media have greatly changed since Bush last appeared on a ballot, in his 2002 re-election. Then, he was a boom-time governor and brother of a popular wartime president. But only 46 percent of the Republicans who voted in that race are on the ballot today. And the conservative mood is stubbornly anti-establishment.

“They are the new generation of Republicans. And Rubio can make essentially the same case that Bush did when he ran for governor,” Brian Crowley, the Palm Beach Post’s former political editor who covered Bush’s elections, wrote on his Crowley Political Report last week.

This presidential campaign is a reminder that Jeb Bush has only faced one serious opponent in his campaigns and he lost, Crowley wrote, referencing Bush’s unsuccessful battle to unseat Democratic governor Lawton Chiles in 1994. The fact is Bush's electoral successes have had more to do with the weaknesses of his opponents. Bush has not run against a Republican in more than 20 years.”

Among self-described Florida conservatives, who accounted for about 70 percent of Viewpoint Florida’s poll, Trump led with about 27 percent support, followed by Carson (17 percent), Rubio (16 percent) and Cruz (15 percent). Bush ran in fifth, with 10 percent support. Former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina, the only other GOP candidate named in the poll, was in fifth among conservatives (4 percent, about the same number as she received overall in the survey). 

What makes Viewpoint Florida’s poll different is its mammoth size and low 2.2 percentage-point margin of error. Nielsen said his group, which phoned actual likely voters culled from the Florida voter file, took a large-sample poll because Viewpoint Florida uses what’s nicknamed “robo-polling technology,” in which respondents register choices by pushing phone prompts on their key pad. Because robo-polls miss cellphone voters, the larger sample size enables the pollsters to interview a more representative sample of the electorate, Nielsen said. 

The survey was completed after last week’s debate, where Bush’s performance was widely panned after Rubio effectively parried his longtime friend’s criticism of his Senate voting by suggesting Bush was disingenuously trying to score political points.

Bush complained Sunday on “Meet The Press” that he was put at a disadvantage because he didn’t have time to respond to Rubio’s reply in the debate."...image above from AP





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