10/28-11/1/15 poll dates. 922 likely Fla. Republican primary voters. 69% reached by phone, 31% reached by internet. Error margin not mentioned
11/3/15, "Exclusive Poll: Trump dominates among Florida voters," baynews9.com, by Caitlyn Jones and Mike Westfall, Team Coverage, Orlando, Fla., Brighthouse Networks
"Donald Trump is dominating in our exclusive Florida Decides presidential poll released Tuesday, both among his fellow Republican candidates and likely Democratic challengers in a head-to-head general election.
Here are some of the main highlights of the Bay News 9 / News 13 Florida Decides Poll, conducted via telephone from Wednesday, Oct. 28 through Sunday, Nov. 1.
- Trump tops Ben Carson and Marco Rubio 2:1 in a GOP primary
- Former Gov. Jeb Bush runs 5th among the top 8 GOP candidates
- Hillary Clinton dispatches Bernie Sanders 3:1 in a Democratic primary
- Florida would go red if Trump or Carson face Clinton in general election. Voters surveyed picked both Trump and Carson over Clinton in a head-to-head matchup on Election Day 2016. (View Results: Clinton vs. Trump ▼ | Clinton vs. Carson ▼)
The poll found 37 percent of Floridians likely to vote in the Republican primary on March 15 said they would vote for Trump if the primary were held today (View Results: GOP Primary ▼).
Trump had a large, 20 percent lead over his closest runner-up, Ben Carson, who got 17 percent support from likely Republican voters. Not far behind Carson was Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, with 16 percent.
We asked our Republican political analyst, former U.S. Rep. Lou Frey, what makes Trump a Florida favorite, overpowering both Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush in their home state.
"I don't understand how he's gotten so many votes, actually, in Florida, but I think he's earned them. He's worked hard at it," Frey said....
Voters surveyed picked both Trump [by 4 pts.] and Carson [by 3 pts.] over Clinton in a head-to-head matchup on Election Day 2016. (View Results: Clinton vs. Trump ▼ | Clinton vs. Carson ▼)
Clinton's chances were better against he lower-polling Bush and Carly Fiorina, but against Rubio, Florida is too close to call. (View Results: Clinton vs. Bush ▼ | Clinton vs. Rubio ▼ | Clinton vs. Fiorina ▼)
In each matchup, however, 9 percent of voters said they were still undecided. One thing that surprised both analysts was the low number of undecided voters when it came to each party's primary: 6 percent among likely Democratic voters and only 3 percent among Republicans polled....
Poll Results and Highlights
If the primary election were today, who would you vote for?
- If the general election were today, who would you vote for?
- 3. Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump ▼
- 4. Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson ▼
- 5. Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush ▼
- 6. Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio ▼
- 7. Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina ▼
- 8. Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump ▼
- 9. Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson ▼
- 10. Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush ▼
- 11. Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio ▼
- 12. Bernie Sanders vs. Carly Fiorina ▼
- "About the poll"
- "The poll was conducted Wednesday, Oct. 28 – Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015 by SurveyUSA for Bay News 9 and News 13.3,000 state of Florida adults were interviewed. Of the adults,
2,712 were registered to vote in the state of Florida. Of the registered
voters, 2,400 were determined to be likely to vote in the Nov. 8, 2016
general election. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that
922 were likely to vote in the Republican primary, and 826 were likely
to vote in the Democratic primary, both on March 15, 2016. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode:
respondents reachable on their home telephone (69% of registered voters)
were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a
professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone
(31% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their
smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
Barack Obama carried Florida (the state was "blue") in both 2008 and 2012."