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Friday, November 6, 2015

Donald Trump regains lead in Iowa, CNN ORC poll 10/29-11/4/15. On the issues, Trump has massive leads in best able to handle the economy and best able to handle illegal immigration-CNN

Trump 25  
Carson 23  
Rubio 13
Cruz 11  
Bush 5  
Fiorina 4  
Jindal 4   
Christie 3
Graham 2  
Huckabee 2  
Kasich 2  
Paul 2

CNN ORC Iowa poll, 10/29-11/4/15 poll dates, land lines and cell phones, 548 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, 4% error margin
On the issues: 

p. 3, Trump best able to handle the economy:
Trump 49  
Bush 9  
Carson 9  
Cruz 8  
Rubio 8  
p. 3, Trump best able to handle illegal immigration:

Trump 44  
Rubio 12  
Cruz 11  
Carson 10
Bush 8

11/6/15, "In Iowa, Hillary Clinton and the outsiders hold the cards," CNN, Jennifer Agiesta
"The poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers finds Trump with 25% support, Carson 23%. Those two are well ahead of their nearest competitors, Sens. Marco Rubio (13%) and Ted Cruz (11%). Behind this top tier, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush tops the remainder of the field with 5%, businesswoman Carly Fiorina and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal each hold 4%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has 3%, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, 2008 Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul each have 2%, with the rest at less than 1% support....  
Among those who say they definitely plan to attend the GOP caucus and are more interested in news about the caucus than any other news (a group that makes up roughly 7% of all Iowa adults), the race looks about the same, with Trump holding a narrow edge over Carson, 31% to 24% (within the margin of error for a sample of that size), with Cruz at 14% and Rubio at 10%.

Overall, Trump continues to have a committed base of supporters in Iowa. Among those who say they have definitely decided who they're going to support, it's 39% for Trump to 22% for Carson with 14% backing Cruz and 8% behind Rubio. People who say they are "leaning toward" a candidate or "still deciding" break 24% Carson to 19% Trump, with Rubio (15%) and Cruz (9%) trailing.

Carson's strength in Iowa is boosted by his support among white evangelical Christians. Among that group, 31% say they back Carson, 20% Trump, 15% Cruz, 11% Rubio. Jindal runs in fifth place among this group with 7% support. Among those likely GOP caucus-attendees who are not white evangelical Christians, 28% back Trump, 17% Carson, 15% Rubio and 7% each for Cruz and Bush.

On the issues, Trump maintains huge leads as the candidate who would better handle the economy and illegal immigration, increasing his advantages on both issues compared with CNN's survey in August. The real estate mogul is less dominant but still ahead of the rest of the field on foreign policy, and runs about evenly with Carson on who would best handle government programs such as Medicare and Social Security. Carson holds the lead on handling social issues....

All told, Trump is seen as the party's best chance to win the White House by about a third of Iowa Republicans: 33% think Trump has the best shot at winning the presidency, 25% say Carson does, 17% Rubio. Just 8% name Cruz and 6% Bush. Further, 27% say Trump is most likely to be an effective president, topping Carson at 20%, Rubio at 13% and Cruz at 12%....

The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone October 29-November 4 among 2,009 adult residents of Iowa, including interviews with 548 likely Republican presidential caucus-goers and 498 likely Democratic presidential caucus-goers. Results for likely Democratic caucus-goers have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 points, it is 4 points for likely Republican caucus-goers." 

CNN ORC POLL RESULTS, released 11/6/15. 


p. 11, CNN ORC Poll: "Methodology":

"A total of 2,009 Iowa adults were interviewed by telephone statewide by live interviewers calling both landline and cellphones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect statewide Census figures for gender, race, age, education and region of the state.Respondents were asked questions about whether they are registered to vote, their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign. Based on the answers to those questions, 1,046 respondents were classified as likely caucus-goers, including 548who were likely to participate in the Republican presidential caucus and 498 who were likely to participate in the Democratic presidential caucus."...


11/6/15, "Trump catches Carson in Iowa poll," The Hill, Jesse Byrnes

"Donald Trump is back in the lead in Iowa, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll.

The real estate mogul wins 25 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers in the poll, compared to 23 percent for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

Those findings show a much closer race between the two candidates than did several recent surveys that put Carson several points ahead....

The latest CNN survey in Iowa finds Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) in third place, with 13 percent, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) following closely behind at 11 percent. 

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush follows at 5 percent, with former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal taking 4 percent each....

The survey of 548 likely GOP caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 29 through Nov. 4 via landlines and cellphones with a margin of error of 4 points. The survey of 498 Democrats has a margin of error of 4.5 points."


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