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Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Trump and Hillary in statistical tie, Sept. 29 and Oct. 2-3, 2016 (Th, Su-Mon), 41T, 42H, in Rasmussen national poll of likely voters. Trump has 6 point lead among independent voters and 3 point lead among minority voters who aren't black

Trump 41
Hillary 42
Johnson 9
Stein 2

Independent voters
Trump 39
Hillary 33
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Minority voters who aren't black
Trump 41
Hillary 38
Johnson 13
Stein 1

Black voters
Trump 12
Hillary 70
Johnson 11
Stein 5

White voters
Trump 46 
Hillary 38
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Sept. 29, Oct. 2-3, 2016. Error margin 2.5, 1500 likely voters nationwide, 37D, 33R, 30 Ind., Male 49, female 51. White 72, black 12, other 16. Automated voice telephone and online.

10/4/16, "White House Watch: White House Watch: Clinton, Trump Tied Again," Rasmussen Reports

"Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are in a virtual tie one week after their first debate

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Clinton with 42% support and Trump with 41%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has inched back up to match his high of nine percent (9%), while Green Party nominee Jill Stein remains in last place with two percent (2%). Another two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Yesterday, it was Clinton 43%, Trump 40%. Factoring in our +/- 2.5 margin of error, both candidates continue to hover around the 40% mark as they have for weeks now, looking for a breakaway moment to put some distance between them and their opponent. Some saw Clinton’s debate performance as that moment, and it did move her slightly ahead after trailing by five points the week before. But the race appears to be tightening again. 

Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters now say they are certain how they will vote, and Clinton has a statistically insignificant 48% to 47% lead among this group. Among the voters who still may change their minds, it’s Trump 31%, Clinton 27%, Johnson 32% and Stein 10%....

Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. 

The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 29 and October 2-3, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

Among voters who support Clinton, 21% say their political opinions are influenced by friends and family on social media like Facebook and Twitter. That compares to only 12% of Trump supporters. 

Trump earns 76% of the Republican vote and has a six-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. Clinton has a comparable 77% level of support among Democrats. Johnson gets seven percent (7%) of the GOP vote, five percent (5%) of Democrats and 15% of unaffiliateds. Stein remains in low single digits in all three groups. 

Twenty-two percent (22%) of unaffiliated voters say they still could change their minds, compared to 16% of Republicans and 11% of Democrats. 

Voters under 40 are less likely than their elders to be certain of their vote with just over a month until Election Day. Younger voters continue to prefer Clinton, while those 40 and over lean toward Trump. 

The GOP nominee leads by six among men and trails by six among women. He’s ahead among whites and other minority voters but remains far behind among blacks. 

Just 29% of all voters think the country is headed in the right direction. Forty-nine percent (49%) approved of President Obama’s job performance in September; 50% disapproved....

Voters think taxes and government spending will increase under a Clinton presidency. They’re less certain what will happen if Trump is elected. 

Most voters believe news organizations play favorites when it comes to fact-checking candidates’ statements, but this skepticism is much stronger among voters who support Trump than those who back Clinton. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only."



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