News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Monday, October 31, 2016

Trump has 7 point lead in Georgia, Survey USA poll, Oct. 25-27, 2016 (Tu-Th), 593 Georgia voters likely to vote or already voted. Trump leads by 17 points among Georgia independent voters

Trump 49
Hillary 42
Johnson 3

Oct. 25-27, 2016 (Tu-Th), 64% automated voice on home telephone, 36% responded to questionnaire on electronic device. 4.1 error margin, 47 male, 53 female. 33R, 29D, 35 Ind.

10/31/16, "In Georgia, Clinton Unable to Seal the Deal, Trails Trump by 7 With 11 Days to Go," Survey USA Operations 

"Democrats have high hopes for Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, but Hillary Clinton falls short in an election today, 10/28/16, according to SurveyUSA polling for WXIA-TV, the Tegna station in Atlanta. Republican Donald Trump is at 49%, Clinton at 42%, and Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% at this hour. 

Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Trump leads by 6. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to vote before polls close on 11/08/16, Trump leads Clinton by 8. When the 2 groups are combined, Trump leads by 7, up from a 4-point Trump lead when SurveyUSA last polled Georgia for WXIA in August.

Trump leads by 58 points among rural men, by 56 points among voters focused on immigration, by 46 points among evangelical voters, by 44 points among whites, by 37 points among rural women, by 28 points among seniors, by 26 points in Northwest GA (which includes Dalton, Rome and 53 counties to the North and West of Greater Atlanta), by 26 points among college-educated whites, by 22 points among middle-income voters and by 18 points among high-school educated men.

Clinton holds 93% of the Democratic base and leads among moderates by 17 points. Although she does have a 21-point edge among just suburban women, when all women statewide are compiled, Clinton leads by just 4 points, not enough to overcome Trump’s 21-point advantage among men statewide... 

Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 38%. Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 47%.

Respondent Filtering / Historical Context: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of GA adults 10/25/16 through 10/27/16. Of the adults interviewed, 683 were registered to vote in Georgia. Of the registered voters, 5% say they “almost always” vote in Presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 5% say they “almost never” vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. These so-called “new” voters split; they do not disproportionately favor Trump. Of the registered voters, 593 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Georgia last voted for a Democrat for President in 1992, when Bill Clinton captured the state’s then 13 electoral votes by 1 percentage point over George H. W. Bush. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Georgia by 8 points. In 2008, John McCain carried Georgia by 7 points. George W. Bush carried Georgia by 17 points in 2004 and by 12 points in 2000."


Georgia Independent voters (item 2)
Trump 51
Hillary 34
Johnson 8


Below, % Georgia blacks and whites for Trump:

Georgia white voters: 67%
Georgia black voters: 10%


Below, % Georgia blacks and whites for Hillary:

Georgia white voters 23%
Georgia black voters 83%


Below, % Georgia blacks and whites for Johnson:

Georgia white voters 5%
Georgia black voters 0%

Top Issues: (item 2)

Trump voters:

Immigration 78%
Nat. security and terrorism 63%
Economy 47%
Education 7%

Hillary voters:

Education 85%
Economy 44%
Nat. security and terrorism 29%
Immigration 22%  

Above chart from item 2, Survey USA


Additional source:

10/31/16, "EXCLUSIVE POLL: Trump lead grows in Georgia," WXIA TV, Atlanta, Kristen Reed and Jennifer Leslie

"With days until election day, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is slated to win Georgia's 16 electoral votes, according to a new SurveyUSA poll conducted for 11Alive.  Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton trails behind.

The survey shows Trump with 49 percent of the vote in the state; Clinton has 42 percent and Libertarian Gary Johnson has three percent. Six percent of voters surveyed are undecided. Trump's 7-point lead is up from 4 points in our last poll in August.

It's important to note this poll was taken before the revelation by the FBI Director that he's looking in to new e-mails possibly related to Clinton's use of a personal server as Secretary of State."...


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