News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Trump overtakes Hillary in CNN ORC national poll of likely voters, Sept. 1-4, 2016, 45-43 with 3.5 error margin. Reg. voters say Trump more honest and trustworthy than Hillary by 15 points, 50-35. Among independent voters, Trump leads by 20 points. Likely voters say #1 issue is economy, #2 is immigration-CNN

Trump 45
Hillary 43
Johnson 7
Stein 2
(p. 24)
Independent voters
Trump 49
Hillary 29
Johnson 16
Stein 6
(p. 24)

Poll dates: Sept. 1-4, 2016. 786 likely voters. 3.5 error margin, telephone poll, 60% land line, 40% cell phone. 28D, 32R, 40 Ind. Among registered voters, Trump more honest and trustworthy by 15 points, 50-35. Trump better handling the economy 56-41, terrorism 51-45, and stronger leader 50-42

9/6/16, "Poll: Nine weeks out, a near even race," CNN, Jennifer Agiesta

"Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%....

Neither major third party candidate appears to be making the gains necessary to reach the 15% threshold set by the Commission on Presidential Debates, with just three weeks to go before the first debate on September 26....

73% of unmarried women back Clinton compared with just 36% of married women. Among men, no such marriage gap emerges, as both unmarried and married men favor Trump....

The poll follows several national polls in August suggesting that the margin between the two candidates had tightened following the conventions. A CNN Poll of Polls analysis released Friday showed that Clinton's lead had been cut in half when compared with the height of her convention bounce.

Speaking to reporters aboard her campaign plane Tuesday, Clinton shrugged off a question about the CNN/ORC survey....

Lack of enthusiasm spikes among Clinton supporters. A majority of Clinton's supporters say they're less excited about voting this year than usual (55%) while most of Trump's backers say they're more excited this time around (56%).... 

Trump holds an edge over Clinton as more trusted to handle two of voters' top four issues -- the economy (56% trust Trump vs. 41% Clinton) and terrorism (51% Trump to 45% Clinton).... 

Trump has his largest edge of the campaign as the more honest and trustworthy of the two major candidates (50% say he is more honest and trustworthy vs. just 35% choosing Clinton) and as the stronger leader, 50% to 42%. Clinton continues to be seen as holding the better temperament to serve effectively as president (56% to 36%) and better able to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief (50% to 45%). [Numbers in this paragraph are for registered voters. The poll includes likely voter results for some but not all questions]. 

On honesty, Clinton's backers express greater skepticism about their candidate than do Trump's supporters. When asked which candidate is more honest and trustworthy, 94% of Trump's backers say he is, while just 70% of those behind Clinton choose her, with 11% saying Trump is more trustworthy and 17% saying neither of them are. And when voters were asked to name the one issue that would be most important [candidate trait] to their vote for president, 5% named honesty or trustworthiness as their top choice [pp. 17 and 18, both reg. and likely voters], ranking it on par with foreign policy and jobs....

The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 1-4 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The survey includes results among 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters. For results among registered or likely voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

p. 21, Methodology, live interviews

Self described: 28D, 32R, 40 Ind. or other.


p. 18, Among likely voters which is #1 issue in your vote?

Economy 21
Immigration 16
Military/Security 11
Candidates traits 11 
(Honest/Trustworthy 5, competence/qualified 2)


p. 53, Enthusiasm for election (reg. voters)

"Extremely enthusiastic:"  

Conservatives: 33
Democrats: 28
Republicans: 28
Independents: 24
Liberals: 23
Moderates: 21


p. 53, "Extremely or very enthusiastic" (reg. voters) 

Trump voters 58%
Hillary voters 46%


p. 54, Enthusiasm of white college grads. (reg. voters)

More enthusiastic 35
Less enthusiastic 58


p. 54, More or less enthusiastic about voting this year? (reg. voters)

Trump: 56 more, 31 less
Hillary: 39 more, 55 less


Image, 9/6/16, "After Summer of Hate, Trump Leads Hillary by Two Points in CNN Poll!" Rush Limbaugh


Comment: Surprising that Latino and Hispanic voters aren't included in this CNN poll considering we've heard for years that Hispanic voters are so important. As to skin color, the poll includes only "white" and "non-white." That doesn't tell you about Hispanic voters since Hispanic voters aren't all "white" nor "non-white." In recognition of this fact, sometimes polls include categories like "Hispanic" and "Non-Hispanic white." I personally met blond haired, blue eyed, Spanish speaking Cubans in Florida a few years ago. I was informed light skinned people had been on the island for multiple generations. 


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