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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Trump leads Hillary by 4.1 in USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election poll through September 27, 2016

Trump 46.7
Hillary 42.6

9/28/16, USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll







"Presidential Election Vote" 

"This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November. 

The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton's vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump's (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a "95-percent confidence interval". Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.

Update: As of Monday September 19th, the Daybreak Poll’s charts will reflect a change in the way we compute the "area of uncertainty" represented by the gray band in each chart. This change means that candidate votes that are about 5 or 6 percentage points apart will be shown to be statistically significant (depending on sample size and how much variation there is in the voting). Our previous calculations required an interval of +/5.5 percentage points for significance in our election forecast, which we have determined was too conservative. We have adjusted the interval in the charts, and in the data provided in the poll’s csv files accordingly." 

"The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology." 

About the Survey✝

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. 
The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology."






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