News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Trump leads by 5 points in Ohio, Bloomberg poll of likely Ohio voters, Sept. 9-12, 2016. 57% of likely Ohio voters are skeptical of trade deals like NAFTA-Bloomberg, 9/14/16

Trump 44
Hillary 39
Johnson 10
Stein 3

Sept. 9-12, 2016, 802 likely Ohio voters, 3.5 error margin, 33R, 29D 34 Ind. Land line and cell phone interviews (page 6), 50-50 male-female, 83 white, 11 black, 2 Hispanic, 2 other.

9/14/16, "Trump Has 5-Point Lead in Bloomberg Poll of Battleground Ohio," Bloomberg, John McCormick, Mark Niquette

"Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Ohio, a gap that underscores the Democrat’s challenges in critical Rust Belt states after one of the roughest stretches of her campaign.

The Republican nominee leads Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a two-way contest and 44 percent to 39 percent when third-party candidates are included....

In the four-way race, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson gets 10 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein receives 3 percent. Each is struggling to reach the 15-percent average needed in national polls recognized by the presidential debate commission be included in the first debate on Sept. 26....

The poll was taken Friday (Sept. 9) through Monday (Sept. 12), as Clinton faced backlash for saying half of Trump supporters were a “basket of deplorables” and amid renewed concerns about her health after a video showed her stumbling as she left a Sept. 11 ceremony with what her campaign later said was a bout of pneumonia.

Trump’s performance in the poll—including strength among men, independents, and union householdsis better than in other recent surveys of the state. It deals a blow to Clinton after she enjoyed polling advantages nationally and in most battleground states in August before the race tightened in September as more Republican voters unified around Trump.

Read the questions and methodology for the poll in Ohio, a state that has backed the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1964, here."...

[Ed. note: Bloomberg chart above is irrelevant to the election because it leaves out two candidates, Johnson who gets 10% and Stein who gets 3%.]

(continuing): "“I’m tired of career politicians being in office and nothing’s ever changed,said Darren Roberts, 45, a facilities maintenance and home improvement retail worker who lives in Columbus and considers himself an independent. “I don’t like all of his policies, but I really don’t like Hillary Clinton’s.”

Trump's strength in Ohio, a state critical to his path to the White House, comes even as seven in 10 say they view one of his signature campaign pledges—to build a wall along the southern U.S. border funded by Mexico—as unrealistic.

The survey shows a strong majority of likely Ohio voters, 57 percent, are skeptical of trade deals such as the North American Free Trade Agreement that was backed by Clinton's husband when he was president and that Trump has used to his political advantage. One in five say such deals help increase exports and employment, and 23 percent aren’t sure. More than four in 10 Clinton supporters see NAFTA as a bad deal, compared to seven in 10 Trump loyalists.

Another Republican, Senator Rob Portman, holds a commanding lead of 53 percent to 36 percent over former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland in the state's U.S. Senate contest. The incumbent leads with a ratio of more than 2-to-1 among independents and is even getting 14 percent from Democrats and those who lean that way....

When asked whom likely voters support for the U.S. House in their district without the interviewers naming any specific candidates, 51 percent picked Republican or leaned that way, while 38 percent picked Democratic or leaned that way.

Some of the Ohio demographic groups where Trump has the biggest edge over Clinton are white men without a college degree (+43 percentage points), white men overall (+27 percentage points), and white women without a college degree (+23 percentage points).

More than a third of poll participants, 38 percent, say either they or someone in their household has been unemployed because of layoffs or company closings during the past decade or looked for work but been unable to find a job. Within that group, Trump outperforms Clinton 51 percent to 38 percent.

Our party breakdown differs from other polls, but resembles what happened in Ohio in 2004,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, whose Iowa-based firm Selzer and Co. oversaw the survey. “It is very difficult to say today who will and who will not show up to vote on Election Day. Our poll suggests more Republicans than Democrats would do that in an Ohio election held today, as they did in 2004 when George W. Bush carried the state by a narrow margin. In 2012, more Democrats showed up.”

A higher proportion of men and older voters—groups that tilt Republican—passed the survey's likely-voter screen than typical in past election cycles, Selzer said, boosting Trump's numbers. Party breakdown for the poll was 33 percent Republican, 29 percent Democrats, and 34 percent independents. Exit polling shows that Ohio's electorate in the 2012 presidential election was 38 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent, while in 2004 it was 40 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic, and 25 percent independent....

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and included interviews with 802 likely Ohio voters. 

For subgroups, such as just Trump or just Clinton voters, the margin of error is higher....

The poll suggests Johnson may be taking some support from younger voters that might traditionally go to a Democrat. Among those under 35 years old, Johnson is getting support from 22 percent in a four-way race, with the remainder splitting fairly evenly between Clinton and Trump, 36 percent to 33 percent.

Trump is winning three of five Ohio regions the poll carved out to weigh geographic strength. His strongest is southeast Ohio, which includes Appalachian counties he carried in the state's Republican primary in March, a contest he lost overall to Governor John Kasich. Trump is getting 61 percent of the vote there, compared to 31 percent for Clinton.

The best area for Clinton is in the northeast, which includes the Democratic strongholds of Cleveland and Youngstown where Trump is trying to sway working-class voters and Clinton is pushing for a high turnout of base supporters, including African-Americans....

Republican vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence, the governor of neighboring Indiana, is viewed more favorably than Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, the Democratic No. 2, 48 percent to 37 percent....

The (Ohio) governor's (Kasich) role in the fight for Ohio is mixed. While 45 percent of Trump’s supporters said they were more likely to back him because of Kasich’s lack of support, 31 percent of all likely voters said it made them less likely to back Trump, while almost a third said it made no difference....

The poll found that unemployment and jobs are the top issue for Ohio's likely voters, with 36 percent picking it from a list of eight options....

Trump has made a strong pitch for working-class voters in Ohio by hammering Clinton on her previous support for trade deals and promising to return companies and jobs that have left."...images from Bloomberg


From page 4 of poll:

A plurality of Ohio likely voters believe it's a good idea to deport millions of undocumented immigrants:

"Donald Trump has said as president he would enforce immigration law more strongly than President Obama has, creating a deportation task force and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants. In your view, is this a good or bad idea?

49 Good idea
45 Bad idea
6 Not sure"


Also: The poll linked in the Bloomberg article doesn't include all the questions/results discussed in the article. For example, the article references, "Trump’s performance in the poll—including strength among men, independents, and union households" but there are no questions on the linked poll that would provide this data about one candidate vs another. 


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