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Friday, September 2, 2016

Trump and Hillary tied in IBD TIPP national poll of likely voters, Aug. 26-Sept. 1, 2016. 'Two big factors: Trump himself and changes in electorate. Silent majority is turning into a vocal majority'-IBD

Trump 39
Hillary 39
Johnson 12
Stein 3
Independent voters
Trump 44%, up from 36% last month

8/26-9/1/16, 861 likely voters nationwide, 65% cell phone, 35% land lines, live interviews. 3.4 error margin

9/2/16, "Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump Are Tied In Latest IBD/TIPP Poll," IBD

"In a sharp turnaround in an already volatile election season, support for Hillary Clinton tumbled as Donald Trump made gains over the past month, leaving the race a virtual tie.

The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows that [without third party candidates] Clinton is now ahead of Trump by just one percentage point, 44% to 43% among likely voters. Last month, Clinton had a seven-point lead over Trump — 46% to 39% -- among registered voters.

Clinton and Trump are tied at 39% each in a four-way matchup that includes Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, who gets 12% support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who gets 3%.

As the election nears, IBD/TIPP is narrowing the horse-race results from registered to likely voters. This month's survey included a total of 934 respondents, 887 of whom were registered voters and 861 were deemed likely voters. The margin of error for the horse-race results is +/‐3.4 percentage points. The IBD/TIPP Poll has been cited as the most accurate in the past three presidential elections. 

"Two big factors are contributing to the tightening of the race," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which directs the IBD/TIPP Poll. "One is due to Trump and other due to changes in the electorate." 

Trump has been widely regarded as having had a good couple of weeks which included his visit to flood-damaged Louisiana and his meeting with Mexican President Pena Nieto, as well as an outreach to blacks and apologies for his past tone.

The IBD/TIPP Poll results show Trump made solid gains among independents, going from 36% support last month to 44% this month.

"We also see a significant spike in enthusiasm among Republicans -- the 'silent majority' is turning into a 'vocal majority,'" Mayur said. "Republicans' interest level at 88% is significantly higher than Democrats' at 80%.

Clinton, in contrast, has been hit by damaging revelations in newly released emails about the unseemly relationship between the Clinton Foundation and the State Department during her tenure as secretary of state. The news appears to be taking its toll.

Clinton's favorability rating slipped from 43% in August to 40% this month among registered voters, while Trump gained seven points. Both candidates are now tied on this score.

Meanwhile, nearly two thirds (62%) now say Clinton is "not honest or trustworthy," up from 58% in last month's poll. Trump scores comparatively much better, with 52% saying he's not honest or trustworthy, a three-point improvement from last month.

Trump also made gains in other areas. The latest poll shows that 47% now think Trump would do a better job handling the economy, vs. 43% who pick Clinton. That's almost an exact reversal from last month. And while Clinton was ahead of Trump on handling terrorism, the two are now tied on this score at 45% each.

In other bad sign for Clinton, the share of her supporters who say they back her "strongly" dropped from 51% in August to 44% in September. Trump, on the other hand, saw his strong support climb from 47% to 50%.

On specific issues championed by Trump, more people support mandatory deportation of illegal aliens (an idea from which Trump has recently backpedaled) than building a wall on the border with Mexico (an idea he continues to push). The poll found 50% supported mandatory deportation, but only 46% back the wall. The public is also firmly on the side of full disclosure when it comes to candidates' health and taxes.

The poll found that 66% say presidential candidates should release their medical records, while 79% say they should release their tax returns. Republicans have been suggesting that Clinton is hiding a serious health problem from the public, while Democrats have blasted Trump for refusing to release any of his tax returns.

Other Poll Findings 

66% of the general public says the country is headed in the wrong direction, up from 63% last month. 

50% approve of the job President Obama is doing, down from 52% last month. 

41% say the economy is in a recession, up from 37% last month. 

32% of households are "job sensitive," meaning that either someone is looking for work or is worried about getting laid off.



    TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence conducted the Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll from Aug. 26 through Sept. 1, 2016. A total of 934 Americans age 18 or older participated in the nationwide survey. Of the 934 respondents, 887 were registered voters and 861 were likely voters. The data tabulated in this report include Registered Voters and Likely Voters subsamples only as identified on the individual tables. The margin of error for both the Registered Voters sample and the Likely Voters sample is +/‐3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
    Click here for more information on the poll's methodology, including detailed results and information about the poll's accuracy in past presidential elections. You can get both horse-race results of likely and registered voters and results of poll questions asked of the general population."



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