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Sunday, October 25, 2015

Trump at 40 in South Carolina, Oct. 15-22, 2015, has 17 point lead over Republican field, CBS News YouGov poll

Trump 40  
Carson 23
Cruz 8  
Rubio 7  
Bush 6  
Fiorina 3  
Huckabee 2  
Kasich 2  
Graham 2  
Santorum 1  
Christie 1  
Paul 1

Oct. 15-22, 2015, 818 likely Republican primary voters, 5.3 error margin. Methodology, online interviews

10/25/15, "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, South Carolina," YouGov

Trump also has the most balanced support among GOP subgroups:

Very conservative: 42
Conservative: 39
Moderate: 48

Tea Party Yes: 43
Tea Party No: 37

Evangelical: 40
Non-Evangelical: 41

Male: 45
Female: 35

Age 18-29: 26
Age 30-44: 44
Age 45-64: 42
Age 65+: 37

Repubican Party ID: 39
Independent ID: 42

CBS News YouGov poll Methodology:

Online interviews of registered voters, some contacted by phone:

"The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

The first wave was fielded between September 3-10, 2015, with 4860 respondents, and the second wave fieldwork was completed between October 15-22, 2015, with 3952 respondents, the majority of which are recontacts. Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels. These are “opt-in” panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 20017 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1290 phone recruits."   



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