News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Trump takes 14 point lead in Missouri, 52 Trump, 38 Hillary, Monmouth University Poll Oct. 28-31, 2016, released Nov. 1. Trump has 24 point lead among independent Missouri voters

Trump 52
Hillary 38
Johnson 4
Stein 2 

Missouri independent voters, p. 6 pdf 

Trump 53 
Hillary 29
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Oct. 28-31, 2016 poll (F-Mon), 405 likely Missouri voters, telephone interviews 50-50 landline and cell phone, 4.9 error margin. 29R, 30D, 40 Ind., (p. 5 pdf), Male 48 Female 52. White 86, black 10, Hispanic 2, Other 2 (p. 5 pdf) 

11/1/16, "Senate Race Remains Neck and Neck; Trump Widens Edge for President," Monmouth University Poll

[A 14 point lead is an "edge?"]

"The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from October 28 to 31, 2016 with 405 Missouri residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of ± 4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ....

The poll was conducted from Friday through Monday, after news broke about the FBI investigation of new emails during Clinton's tenure as Secretary of State. Only 4% of Missouri voters say this news caused them to change their mind about which candidate they would support.The vast majority (87%) say these latest developments has had no impact on their vote and 8% are unaware of the news.

"Most of those voters who are swayed by the latest bombshell have moved into Trump's camp, but some actually side with Clinton now. The bottom line is that the net impact of the FBI news is contributing no more than one or two points to Trump's overall margin here," said Murray, adding, "The one way this small effect could be critical is if it spurs GOP turnout that could be decisive in razor thin races down the ballot."...

The Monmouth University Poll  was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 28 to 31, 2016 with a random sample of 405 likely Missouri voters.  Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 355 drawn from a list of registered voters (204 landline / 151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and voting history based on voter list and U.S. Census information.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls."

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups." 

Download this Poll Report with all tables
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White non-Hispanic, p. 5 pdf
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Trump 58
Hillary 33
................................
Other than White non-Hispanic 
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Trump 13
Hillary 69
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Did recent news about Hillary State Dept. emails being found on personal laptop of Huma Abedin's husband
change your vote? p. 10 pdf 

Total: 4% 
............... 

Repub. 1% 
Independents 7%
Dem. 3%

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