News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Obama voters were key in Trump victory: Many who voted twice for Obama chose Trump over Hillary in 2016. One-third of nearly 700 counties that voted for Obama twice chose Trump over Hillary-Washington Post, 11/9/16

"On average, the counties that voted for Obama twice and then flipped to support Trump were 81 percent white. Obama strongholds that supported Clinton were just 55 percent....Michigan and New Hampshire could add to this total, but their results were not finalized as of 4 p.m. Wednesday." 
11/9/16, "These former Obama strongholds sealed the election for Trump," Washington Post, by Kevin Uhrmacher, Kevin Schaul and Dan Keating

 "Donald Trump delivered on his promise to flip the Democrats’ electoral hold on the industrial Midwest."

Trump also won 194 of the 207 counties that voted for Obama either in 2008 or 2012. 

By contrast, of those 2,200 counties that never supported Obama, Clinton was only able to win six. That’s just 0.3 percent crossover to the Democratic side.

Clinton had more opportunities to peel counties from the Republicans. Historically, Democrats rely on few (but very populous) counties to chart a path to victory. Republicans, by contrast, draw support from a wide swath of many more rural and suburban counties.

Despite having a smaller field of possible counties to win over, Trump did just that, delivering electoral votes in the Upper Midwest states, as well as in Florida and North Carolina.

Trump secured several Obama counties in upstate New York, though it wasn’t enough to win the state. He also won over counties in Maine’s rural congressional 2nd District, securing a GOP electoral vote in New England for the first time since 2000.

The Obama-Trump voter

Who are these voters who picked the nation’s current president twice and now its president-elect, who rocketed to political prominence questioning Obama’s legitimacy?

On average, the counties that voted for Obama twice and then flipped to support Trump were 81 percent white. Obama strongholds that supported Clinton were just 55 percent white.

Of the counties that split their vote in 2008 and 2012, Trump’s were 86 percent white and Clinton’s were 71 percent white.

There was also an education gap, with Trump pulling more support from counties with more voters with a only a high school education. In Trump’s counties, 36 percent of voters had no college education, on average. In the consistently Democratic counties, only 28 percent of voters were not college educated."...

[Ed. note: 70% of Americans don't have a college degree, per Politifact. If you wanted to win an election, wouldn't these be the people you'd want?

(continuing): "Why it mattered

The Obama-Trump counties were critical in delivering electoral victories for Trump. Many of them fall in states that supported Obama in 2012, but Trump in 2016. In all, these flipped states accounted for 83 electoral votes. (Michigan and New Hampshire could add to this total, but their results were not finalized as of 4 p.m. Wednesday.)
Note: Trump also won Maine’s congressional 2nd District, which earned him one electoral vote. Dark gray areas [on above map] did not have enough data. Alaska is not included because it has no counties. Results as of 7 a.m. Wednesday. Source: AP"


Added: Politifact says 70% of Americans don't have a college degree as of  4/82015:

"Seventy percent of Americans "don't have a college degree."

 4/8/15, "70% of Americans don't have college degree, Rick Santorum says," Politifact, Katharina Fiedler 

"Rick Santorum, a potential candidate for president in 2016, argues that the Republican Party is not offering enough for America’s workers. The former senator from Pennsylvania said Republicans need to improve in reaching out to these voters on CBS’s Face the Nation on April 5, 2015.

"I think people are looking for someone to bring us together. And I put a book out last year called Blue Collar Conservatives, and it's the whole idea that we have to start bringing those who are being left behind by this economy. We have to give them an opportunity to be able to reach that American dream again. And I think Republicans, frankly, have been very weak on that," Santorum said.

After mentioning that Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee, did not do a great job in reaching out to the working class, Santorum added:

"I think there's a lot of folks who are very disenchanted with both political parties because neither party is really talking about them and really saying what's the way forward for the 70 percent of Americans who don't have a college degree but, you know, want economic opportunity like everybody else and nobody's talking about that."
We wondered whether Santorum is correct that 70 percent of Americans don’t have a college degree. 

We checked with Santorum’s staff of his organization Patriot Voices, and they sent us an article from Vox about Scott Walker’s lack of a college diploma. The reporter argues that not having a college degree does not really matter since "most Americans — nearly 70 percentdon't have a bachelor's degree, either." The article doesn’t give a source for its number. 

We decided to look for data about educational attainment from the U.S. Census Bureau; we found 2014 data (the most recent available) on the U.S. population by age, race and gender. We focused on the age group of 25 years and over, because most American students graduate by the time they turn 25. 

According to census data, 209.3 million people in the United States are 25 years old or older, and 66.9 million have a bachelor’s degree or higher (such as a master’s, professional or doctoral degree). That means about 68 percent of them do not have a bachelor’s degree.  If we include people who have an academic associate degree -- about 11.7 million people -- the percentage of people without a degree declines slightly, to 62 percent. 

The U.S. Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics looked at the same question in a 2014 longitudinal study that followed young people to age 27. It found that by that age, 72 percent of respondents did not have bachelor's degrees. 

Our ruling
In making the point that Republicans need to reach out to the working class more, Santorum said that 70 percent of Americans don’t have a college degree. We found several measures that are close to the number Santorum cited. Overall, we rate his claim True."

Added: Per CBS News exit polls, Trump won non-college whites by margin of 72-23:

If you wanted to win a US election, you'd aim for
70% of Americans who don't have a college degree. CBS News shares Nov. 2016 exit poll of white voters without college degrees. 72% went for Trump and 23% for Hillary. Granted, this is only white voters, but the point is non-college voters are the the vast majority of Americans. If you mock or marginalize them and they decide to vote, you're likely going to lose.

11/9/16, "CBS News Exit Polls: How Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency," CBS News, by Stanley Feldman and Melissa Herrmann 

"As expected, Trump did best among white voters without a college degree, beating Clinton by the enormous margin of 72 percent to 23 percent. Trump also won among white, non-college women 62 to 34 percent and white college-educated men, 54 to 39 percent. Among white voters, Clinton only won among women with a college degree by a 51 to 45 percent margin. Interestingly, among white voters, there is no evidence in the exit poll that income affected the likelihood that they supported Trump."...

Added: Anecdotal about Pinellas County, Fla. (St. Petersburg, Clearwater), from Free Republic poster

"Pinellas County in Tampa Bay, where we live, came through for Trump after voting Obama twice."

16 posted on 11/12/2016, 6:05:49 PM by MaxistheBest"


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