.
“There’s a well-known saying in New England that if you don’t like the weather here, wait a minute. When it comes to independent voters, those weather changes can just as quickly shift beliefs about climate change.
New research from the University of New Hampshire finds that the climate change beliefs of independent voters are dramatically swayed by short-term weather conditions.
The research was conducted by Lawrence Hamilton, professor of sociology
and senior fellow at the Carsey Institute, and Mary Stampone, assistant
professor of geography and the New Hampshire state climatologist.
The research is presented in the article “Blowin’ in the Wind: Short-Term Weather and Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change” in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society. “We find that over 10 surveys, Republicans and Democrats remain far apart and firm in their beliefs about climate change. Independents fall in between these extremes, but their beliefs appear weakly held—literally blowing in the wind. Interviewed on unseasonably warm days, independents tend to agree with the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change. On unseasonably cool days, they tend not to,” Hamilton and Stampone say.
Hamilton and Stampone used statewide data from about 5,000 random-sample telephone interviews conducted on 99 days over two and a half years (2010 to 2012) by the Granite State Poll. They combined the survey data with temperature and precipitation indicators derived from New Hampshire’s U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) station records.
Survey respondents were asked whether they thought climate change is
happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Alternatively,
respondents could state that climate change is not happening, or that it is happening but mainly
for natural reasons. Unseasonably warm or cool temperatures on the
interview day and previous day seemed to shift the odds of respondents believing that humans are changing the climate.
However, when researchers broke these responses down by political
affiliation (Democrat, Republican or independent), they found that temperature had a substantial effect on climate change views mainly among independent voters.
“Independent voters were less likely to believe that climate change was caused by humans on unseasonably cool days and more likely to believe that climate change was caused by humans on unseasonably warm days.
The shift was dramatic. On the coolest days, belief in human-caused climate change dropped below 40 percent among independents. On the hottest days, it increased above 70 percent,” Hamilton says. New Hampshire’s self-identified independents generally resemble their counterparts on a nationwide survey that asked the same questions, according to the researchers.
Independents comprise 18 percent of the New Hampshire estimation sample, compared with 17 percent nationally.
They are similar with respect to education, but slightly older, and
more balanced with respect to gender. In conducting their analysis, the
researchers took into account other factors such as education, age, and
sex. They also made adjustments for the seasons, and for random variation between surveys that might be caused by nontemperature events.” via Tom Nelson
.
New research from the
University of New Hampshire finds that the climate change beliefs of
independent voters are dramatically swayed by short-term weather
conditions. The research was conducted by Lawrence Hamilton, professor
of sociology and senior fellow at the Carsey Institute, and Mary
Stampone, assistant professor of geography and the New Hampshire state
climatologist. The research is presented in the article "Blowin' in the
Wind: Short-Term Weather and Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change" in
the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and
Society.
"We find that over 10 surveys, Republicans and Democrats remain far
apart and firm in their beliefs about climate change. Independents fall
in between these extremes, but their beliefs appear weakly
held—literally blowing in the wind. Interviewed on unseasonably warm
days, independents tend to agree with the scientific consensus on
human-caused climate change. On unseasonably cool days, they tend not
to," Hamilton and Stampone say.
Hamilton and Stampone used statewide data from about 5,000 random-sample
telephone interviews conducted on 99 days over two and a half years
(2010 to 2012) by the Granite State Poll. They combined the survey data
with temperature and precipitation indicators derived from New
Hampshire's U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) station records.
Survey respondents were asked whether they thought climate change is
happening now, caused mainly by human activities. Alternatively,
respondents could state that climate change is not happening, or that it
is happening but mainly for natural reasons.
Unseasonably warm or cool temperatures on the interview day and previous
day seemed to shift the odds of respondents believing that humans are
changing the climate. However, when researchers broke these responses
down by political affiliation (Democrat, Republican or independent),
they found that temperature had a substantial effect on climate change
views mainly among independent voters.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-01-climate-beliefs-independent-voters-shift.html#jCp
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-01-climate-beliefs-independent-voters-shift.html#jCp
There's a well-known saying
in New England that if you don't like the weather here, wait a minute.
When it comes to independent voters, those weather changes can just as
quickly shift beliefs about climate change.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-01-climate-beliefs-independent-voters-shift.html#jCp
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-01-climate-beliefs-independent-voters-shift.html#jCp
There's a well-known saying
in New England that if you don't like the weather here, wait a minute.
When it comes to independent voters, those weather changes can just as
quickly shift beliefs about climate change.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-01-climate-beliefs-independent-voters-shift.html#jCp
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-01-climate-beliefs-independent-voters-shift.html#jCp
There's a well-known saying
in New England that if you don't like the weather here, wait a minute.
When it comes to independent voters, those weather changes can just as
quickly shift beliefs about climate change.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-01-climate-beliefs-independent-voters-shift.html#jCp
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-01-climate-beliefs-independent-voters-shift.html#jCp
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