"Rival drug gangs battle over territory. The murder rate rises and helpless residents implore the government to restore order. The government sends soldiers to keep the peace.
But instead, the violence gets worse.
The story was repeated many times during the six-year term of President Felipe Calderón, who began his presidency at the end of 2006 by sending troops into his home state, Michoacán. Now a statistical analysis of homicide rates in 18 regions of Mexico during that time confirms that the arrival of soldiers failed to reduce the number of murders in 16 of those areas. In some of the most notable cases, including the border cities of Ciudad Juárez and Tijuana and the Pacific resort city of Acapulco, the murder rate soared in the year after soldiers were put on the streets, according to a new study published on the website of The American Statistician.
The study, “Did the Military Interventions in the Mexican Drug War Increase Violence?” strongly suggests that the arrival of troops leads to an increase in homicide rates in the short term, or at best, no improvement, said Valeria Espinosa, one of the study’s authors, a quantitative analyst at Google who completed a Ph.D. in statistics at Harvard in 2014.
To estimate the effect of the military intervention, the study compared the regions where there were interventions with similar regions where no troops were sent. Ms. Espinosa and her co-author, Donald B. Rubin, a Harvard professor of statistics, also defined the regions they studied as the central city and surrounding municipalities because drug violence often migrates to neighboring areas when soldiers begin patrolling cities.
In an interview, Ms. Espinosa said that additional variables that she did not have — such as government intelligence on drug gangs, smuggling routes and drug crops — would contribute to a fuller understanding about whether military intervention actually causes increased violence.
“It’s a methodology that policy makers could use along with inside information” to determine the effects of military intervention, Ms. Espinosa said.
The study is limited to short-term results. In the most notorious case, Ciudad Juárez, the murder rate rose to more than 200 people per 100,000 in 2010 after a military intervention in 2008, the highest in the world. But since then, it has fallen significantly.
A recent study by the International Crisis Group attributes the relative return to normality to citizen engagement that demands accountability from the local authorities, public investment in social programs and local police and judicial reforms."
While presiding over the murder capitol of the world in 2010, Felipe Calderon harshly criticized US laws in his speech to a joint session of congress. He received a standing ovation from many in congress for doing so:
"Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s tough criticism of U.S. gun control and Arizona’s immigration law — as he stood in the speaker’s chair in the House chamber— angered Republicans while Democrats cheered, adding a partisan tinge to what was supposed to be a routine speech.
This type of rebuke from a foreign leader invited to a joint session of Congress is very rare — and the partisan response from members of Congress made the spectacle more like a State of the Union address than a staid speech from a foreign ally.
“I strongly disagree with your recently adopted law in Arizona,” Calderon told the assembled lawmakers from the dais in the House chamber, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Joe Biden seated behind him.
With his words, about two-thirds of the chamber gave him a standing ovation while the remainder — mostly Republicans — remained seated....
New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez didn’t seem bothered by a foreign leader criticizing the United States while standing in the House chamber. “Mexico is a great partner,” he said. “On the questions of security and immigration, it’s an important reminder that we have to work together.”"...
Image above caption: ". In This Photo: Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, Felipe Calderon U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (L) and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) (L) stand and applaud for Mexican President Felipe Calderon as he addresses a joint session of the U.S. Congress on the floor of the House House of Representatives at the U.S. Captiol May 20, 2010 in Washington, DC. Calderon met with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House Wednesday where the two leaders discussed the ongoing drug war along the U.S.-Mexico border and the recent anti-illegal immigration law passed in Arizona. (May 19, 2010 - Source: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images North America)"
6/17/13, "Syria and Egypt can't be fixed," Asia Times, by Spengler
“Mexico would have died...without the option to send its rural poor - fully one-fifth of its population - to the United States.” ...
"More than 60,000 people died in violence linked to warring drug cartels during the 2006-2012 presidency of Felipe Calderon. An average of 1,000 people per month have been killed under his successor, Enrique Pena Nieto, who took office December."
7/5/13, "Seven severed heads found by highway in central Mexico," Reuters
"Authorities have found seven severed heads stuffed in plastic bags on the edge of a highway near the city of Guadalajara, Jalisco state prosecutors said on Wednesday.
The gruesome discovery about 25 miles (40 kilometres) from the country's second-biggest city is a reminder of the criminal violence still plaguing Mexico, despite assurances from the government that the murder rate is falling.
More than 60,000 people died in violence linked to warring drug cartels during the 2006-2012 presidency of Felipe Calderon. An average of 1,000 people per month have been killed under his successor, Enrique Pena Nieto, who took office December.
Jalisco, the home of tequila and mariachi music, has been hard hit by the ongoing violence. Murders were up more than 5 percent during the first five months of this year compared with the same period a year ago, according to Mexican police.
The bodies of two schoolboys suspected of bullying the son of a powerful drug trafficker were found in Jalisco this week.
In March Jalisco's tourism minister was shot dead in Guadalajara just a week after taking office."
‘Only’ 4200 were killed in first 4 months of new Mexican president’s term:
5/5/13, “Violence in Mexico: Journalists’ sons killed and seven bodies found,” Reuters via NY Daily News, “Around 70,000 people have died at the hands of Mexican drug cartels since 2006.”
“84 journalists have been killed in Mexico since 2000, and 20 more have disappeared since 2005.”
“In December 2012, newly installed President Enrique Pena Nieto promised to switch the focus of Mexico’s drug wars from tackling the gang leaders to reducing the crime and violence that affect the lives of Mexicans…".
(graph from BBC)
Did you know US "immigration reform" means there's no border between the US and the terror state of Mexico? In effect Boston Globe says so, that it ensures an endless supply of unskilled Mexican workers for farm labor and Silicon Valley start-ups, which is great, the Globe says: