11/25/11, "Carbon markets plumb new depths as price falls below €8 a tonne," BusinessGreen.com, Will Nichols
"Carbon prices dropped to record lows this week on the back of continued uncertainty in the Eurozone and mounting fears of an oversupply of EU approved carbon allowances.
EU Allowances (EUAs) were selling for €7.80 yesterday morning, while permits from the UN's Clean Development Mechanism offsetting scheme dropped more than 10 per cent to €5.30.
Carbon credits in the EU's emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) have lost about half their value since the debt problems in the Eurozone first began to impact markets in June.
The recent bear run has prompted banking giant UBS to predict carbon prices could fall to just €3 a tonne, and many traders are expecting the downward spiral seen throughout the second half of this year to continue.
"I think [it could fall to] €6 to €6.50 presuming we enter into a recession and the sovereign debt crisis isn't resolved," Matthew Gray, an analyst at IDEAcarbon, told BusinessGreen.
The low prices are further compounded by concerns among some analysts that the market will be oversupplied with credits for much of the 2013-to-2020 trading period – a scenario that could be exacerbated further by the European Investment Bank's decision to sell 300 million additional permits to fund renewable energy and carbon capture and storage projects.
When initially announced, this fund was forecast to be as large as €5bn, but at current prices the sale would only raise €2.3bn for green projects. Given the EIB has confirmed it has no intention of delaying the sale, the low prices could directly affect the amount of support low carbon projects receive.
The low price of carbon set by the ETS could also spell bad news for the UK's plans to introduce a carbon floor price from 2013, which is expected to be set at around £16 a tonne.
If the government does proceed with its original plan, energy-intensive firms in the UK would see their energy costs rise significantly above those faced by competitors on the continent, fuelling calls for the coalition to offer generous tax breaks to those industries likely to see their competitiveness undermined.
Speaking to reporters yesterday, Chris Huhne, the energy and climate change secretary, said it was too early to say whether the UK's plans would be changed if the price of carbon does not recover.
But he added that the EU could give a clear signal that it wants to drive up the price of carbon and enhance the integrity of the cap-and-trade scheme by increasing its 2020 carbon cutting target from 20 per cent to 30 per cent – a move that would increase the price of carbon by requiring firms to purchase more allowances.
"This latest development is clearly reflecting some of the bad economic news coming out of the EU," Huhne said. "The carbon price floor is designed to set a clear trajectory influencing in particular the power sector decarbonisation. I certainly hope we will have seen both greater ambition in the EU in terms of carbon emissions and we will have had a full-scale economic recovery before 2013."
The low price of carbon will also provide further ammunition for critics of the scheme, who have long argued that the over supply of allowances is undermining green projects and resulting in volatile prices that make it harder to justify long-term investment in low carbon infrastructure."
via Tom Nelson
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