News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Severe climate estimates by UN IPCC are unlikely-Science Magazine, NSF study

11/24/11, "Global warming rate less than feared: study," AFP

"High levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may have less of an impact on the rate of global warming than feared, a study said Thursday.

The authors of the study funded by the US National Science Foundation stressed that global warming is real, and that increases in atmospheric CO2, which has doubled from pre-industrial standards, will have multiple serious impacts.

But the more severe estimates, such as those put forth by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,

  • are unlikely, the researchers found
  • in their study published in the journal Science.

The 2007 IPCC report estimated that surface temperatures could rise by as much as 2.4 to 6.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 to 11.5 Fahrenheit).

"When you reconstruct sea and land surface temperatures from the peak of the last ice age 21,000 years ago -- which is referred to as the Last Glacial Maximum --

  • and compare it with climate model simulations of that period,
  • you get a much different picture,"

said lead author Andreas Schmittner, an Oregon State University researcher.

"If these paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, the results imply

Scientists have long struggled to quantify "climate sensitivity," or how the Earth will respond to projected increases in carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas.

Schmittner noted that many previous studies only looked at periods spanning from 1850 to today, thus

  • not taking into account a fully integrated paleoclimate date on a global scale.

The researchers based their study on ice age land and ocean surface temperature obtained by examining

  • ices cores, bore holes, seafloor sediments and other factors.

When they first looked at the paleoclimatic data, the researchers only found very small differences in ocean temperatures then compared to now.

"Yet the planet was completely different -- huge ice sheets over North America and northern Europe, more sea ice and snow, different vegetation, lower sea levels and more dust in the air," said Schmittner.

"It shows that even very small changes in the ocean's surface temperature can have an enormous impact elsewhere,

  • particularly over land areas at mid- to high-latitudes."

He warned that continued, unabated use of fossil fuels could lead to similar warming of sea surfaces today."


11/24/11, "Climate sensitivity to CO2 probed," BBC

"Global temperatures could be less sensitive to changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels than previously thought, a study suggests.

The researchers said people should still expect to see "drastic changes" in climate worldwide, but that the risk was a little less imminent.

The results are published in Science.

Previous climate models have used meteorological measurements from the last 150 years to estimate the climate's sensitivity to rising CO2.

From these models, scientists find it difficult to narrow their projections down to a single figure with any certainty, and instead project a range of temperatures that they expect, given a doubling of atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial levels.

The new analysis, which incorporates palaeoclimate data into existing models, attempts to project future temperatures with a little more certainty.

Lead author Andreas Schmittner from Oregon State University, US, explained that by looking at surface temperatures during the last Ice Age - 21,000 years ago - when humans were having no impact on global temperatures, he, and his colleagues,

  • show that this period was not as cold as previous estimates suggest.

"This implies that the effect of CO2 on climate is less than previously thought," he explained."...

via Tom Nelson

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