Russian fires were NOT due to global warming, even NOAA says so, 8/13/10

8/13/10 report, "The Russian Heat Wave of 2010," US Dept. of Commerce, Draft report by NOAA CSI

NOAA distinguishes Russia's story within its 'warmest year' theme, saying the truth about 2010 Russian fires is they were due to 'atmospheric blocking:'

• "Not all areas were warm, however, and
  
• in particular most of Russia did not contribute to the record global conditions during the first half of the year....

Whereas an event of this magnitude was unexpected for the summer of 2010, and indeed there was little if any advance warming from long lead seasonal forecasts, it is nonetheless important to assess the

• factors that may have been responsible for such an extreme heat wave.

There is strong evidence that the immediate cause can be placed at the doorstep of

• an extreme pattern of atmospheric winds—widely referred to as blocking. In the situation of anticyclonic blocking such as developed over western Russia in early July 2010,

the normal west-to-east movement of weather systems is inhibited...

Blocks are not an uncommon occurrence over Eurasia in summer, with a episodes of July blocking in the region between 0-60ºE evident during the past half century (Figure 5). This region is vulnerable to episodes of blocking owing to physical factors

• related to the region's location downstream of the Atlantic westerly jet.

The sector exhibits high climatological frequency of blocking days during July/August, with an average of 10 days experiencing a blocking conditions (Figure 6). ...

Surface temperatures soared as a result of

• the combination of clear skies,
  
• sinking motion within the environment of the high pressure causing compressional heating of air,
• the lack of any temporary relief owing to the blocking of the typical cold fronts that cool the region intermittently in summer.
  

Add to this scenario the cumulative effect of drought that began in early summer which caused soils to dry and plants to desiccate to wilting point , thereby causing additional surface warming via land feedbacks as the blocking condition persisted.

• These are all well-known and studied physical processes that have accompanied summertime blocking and heat waves in the past....

Blocking events are typically of 1-2 week duration, and by contrast the 2010 situation is highly unusual in that blocking has existed over western Russia on virtually every day form the beginning of July until the middle of August....

• What has been the role of human-induced climate change in the Russian heat wave of 2010? ...

(about 9/10 down article): "Despite this strong evidence for a warming planet,

• greenhouse gas forcing

• fails to explain the 2010 heat wave over western Russia.

The natural process of atmospheric blocking, and the climate impacts induced by such blocking,

• are the principal cause for this heat wave....

It is important to note that observations reveal no trend in a daily frequency of July blocking over the period since 1948,

• nor is there an appreciable trend

in the absolute values of upper tropospheric summertime heights over western Russia for the period since 1900."...

• 8/13/10, "The Russian Heat Wave of 2010," from US Dept. of Commerce, Draft report by NOAA CSI

Reference:

• 9/24/10, "UN Climate Chief: Events not caused by global warming prove need for action on global warming," Babblefest

• 8/26/10, "Russian heat wave, Pakistani floods caused by 'blocked' jet stream, not global warming," Babblefest

• 10/13/10, "Pakistani timber mafia and climate change caused much of summer's flooding," Treehugger, by Matthew McDermott

Imaginary global warming casts middle class Americans as climate criminals responsible for sinking islands for which they must pay billions in reparations yearly--on a fixed date not open to negotiation--in perpetuity.

• P.S. I was prompted to post this after hearing an oily segment on 'Best of John Batchelor' show last night. The guest was an author of a global warming book and sounded like the giddy types you hear on radio infomercials about health remedies. "John, you are so right," and made a big point that Russian fires were caused by global warming, and we must not be fooled again, we must take global warming seriously. For example, people in LA must get rid of their cars, re-make the entire metro area into a bunch of high rises (like NYC). JB acted in complete sympathy with the wacko profiteer as lock-step leftists will do.
  

via Climate Depot