News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Friday, September 18, 2015

Donald Trump increases lead after CNN debate as first choice for president among Republican primary voters, now is triple nearest contender-Morning Consult poll, 9/18/15

After CNN debate, Republican choice for president:
 
Trump 36
Carson 12
Fiorina 10
Rubio 9
Cruz 7
Bush 6
Christie 6

9/18/15, "Poll: Fiorina Wins Debate, Trump Still Leads," Morning Consult Poll, Reid Wilson

"Trump continues to lead the Republican primary field. Thirty-six percent of registered voters who watched the debate said they would choose Trump, compared with 12 percent for Carson and 10 percent for Fiorina. Rubio placed fourth, at 9 percent, followed by 7 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and 6 percent for Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)....

























The Morning Consult survey polled 504 registered voters who said they watched the Republican primary debate and that they plan to participate in their state’s Republican presidential nominating contest. Of those voters, 69 percent [348] identified themselves as Republicans, and 28 percent [141] called themselves independents.

The poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent." graph from Morning Consult. (no link to actual poll)


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"Trump increases lead"

9/18/15, "Post-Debate Poll: Trump Increases Lead; Fiorina Leaps, Carson Sinks," Breitbart, John Nolte

"In this same poll, prior to Wednesday night’s debate, Trump sat at 33% support. Dr. Ben Carson sat in second place with 17% support. Today Trump enjoys 36% support. Carson is still in second place but with just 12% support.
 
Trump’s lead increased from +16 points to  +24%. That’s an +8% jump."...


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Before CNN debate even began, narrative was in place saying Fiorina won the night, per Gov. Scott Walker:

"We knew the narrative no matter what" was going to be that Fiorina won the night:

9/17/15, "Scott Walker: Media Would’ve Said Fiorina Won Debate ‘No Matter What’," MediaIte, by Andrew Desiderio

"Wisconsin Gov. and Republican presidential candidate Scott Walker went after the media following CNN’s GOP debate, telling radio host Glenn Beck on Thursday that members of the political press were going to spin the debate as a win for Carly Fiorina “no matter what.”

I think going in, we knew the narrative no matter what was going to happen was that they were going to say Carly had a big night, no matter what, and obviously they said that,” Walker said."...



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9/13/2015, "California Republicans echo U.S. trends, favoring outsiders Donald Trump and Ben Carson," LA Times, Cathleen Decker 

[approx. 23rd parag.] "The voters' early verdict was perhaps most humbling for Fiorina. Just four years after she spent tens of millions to impress them, fewer than half of California Republicans surveyed would consider voting for her, and 23% said they would never consider it....

  











 






Added #2: How I got to above crosstabs chart:

1. "New University of Southern California Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times poll," linked in above LA Times article in parag. 11.
2. Scroll to "Key Findings"
3. Click on USC Dornsife/LA Times Crosstabs
4. An Adobe Acrobat window appears


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9/12/15, "California Presidential Poll," LA Times

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"The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll was conducted Aug. 29-Sept. 8 among a random sample of 1,500 registered California voters, including 422 eligible to participate in the Republican primary, which is open only to registered Republicans, and 819 eligible to participate in the Democratic primary, which is open to registered Democrats and voters who decline to state a party. The margin of error for the Democratic subsample is +/- 3.6 percentage points. The margin of error for the Republican subsample is +/- 5.3 percentage points."


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