News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Der Spiegel: Nov. 2014 UN IPCC report omits significant scientific findings, contains distortions, serious gaps in knowledge not mentioned, results of climate models vary widely, essential factors aren't considered


Hamburg: "Under global media din of the IPCC has in the last 13 months, three comprehensive published reports that demonstrate the level of knowledge. Now the final. 
In Copenhagen, the UN has published the IPCC Synthesis Report, he will gather the most important of the three climate reports, new knowledge it does not contain. With almost 120 pages, it is about as long as the summaries of the three previously published climate reports together, all titled as "Summaries for Policymakers". 
 
What are the three already pointed summaries can be rewritten and compiled again now?
 
The synthesis report should be a "roadmap" for politicians, the IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri said at the beginning of deliberations on Monday in Copenhagen. The document should help delegates at the UN climate negotiations to come to an agreement on a global climate treaty. "We still have time to create a better, more sustainable world," Pachauri said.
 
Embezzled knowledge
 
There remain only a little time to prevent a warming above two degrees Celsius, he now announced with the publication of the report. Necessary is the reduction of CO2 emissions by 40 to 70 percent by 2050. During the next three decades of climate change can be slowed "acceptable cost", divides the IPCC.
 
According to the calculations of the IPCC, global growth would not be "affected" by the costs of reducing CO2 emissions. Even "ambitious" measures would therefore cost only 0.06 percentage points of world consumption in the 21st century a year, which is expected with an annual growth of between 1.6 and three per cent.  

However, should not be quickly done something that costs would rise sharply, warned the IPCC. 
 
"The international community must now do everything possible to adopt an ambitious climate agreement, a further delay would be irresponsible , "said Federal Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks (SPD) the new report.
 
But during the previous climate reports are strictly the state of play with all its contradictions over long distances, the new synthesis report omits significant scientific findings. The procedure is particularly noticeable for Predicting the most complex environmental areas, such as the grain growth,

the energy supply or conflicts .
 
Is particularly evident distortion in the statements to the predicted extinction:
 
Krass it appears in the 40-page executive summary of the report for decision-makers. In two places, the extinction of species is discussed (page 10 and 13). The speech is there exclusively of high risks; the considerable uncertainty of the forecasts and serious gaps in knowledge on the subject are not mentioned - they are not relevant for decision-makers?
 
The Synthesis Report itself is then to predict:
 
A global warming of four degrees or more since the beginning of industrialization (a degree has already been reached) implies a high to very high risk of significant biodiversity loss, it would increase the rate of species extinction. In the forecast of modeling there "high confidence" (page 25, 34).
 
The other hand, write the experts in the respective subject chapter of the UN Climate Reports to:
 
Climate models can various key processes in terms of Not represent species development, significantly influence the vulnerability of species to climate change - for example: The ability of the adaptation of genetic and external features to new environmental conditions, the ability to spread, the dynamics of populations, the effects of habitat fragmentation, the interaction of communities, micro-refuges, the effect of rising CO2 concentrations on vegetation (page 299/300).
 
The synthesis report is to evidence from the past:
 
The current and predicted rate of climate change is much faster than natural climate change events during the past million years that have already triggered significant extinctions. Therefore, there is a strong basis for the assumption that climate change poses a risk to living organisms (page 14, 25).
 
In the thematic chapters of the climate report but is this:
 
Paleontological data from the past year, hundreds of thousands have very low extinction rates during major climatic fluctuations. This evidence may indicate that the predictions of very high extinction rates may be exaggerated (page 301).  

During the Ice Age, there were, as the first part of the UN climate report points out, in larger parts of the world climate changes of tens of degrees in 50 years, 

which is 20 times faster than in the 20th century - 

greater climate-induced extinctions are not documented. Perhaps because the climate variability mainly related to higher latitudes (page 432ff). 
 
The Synthesis Report is available on specific scenarios:
 
The expected extinction is caused by various phenomena such as climate warming, shrinking rivers, ocean acidification and oxygen depletion in waters. Cause of extinction is both the speed and the strength of the warming (page 26).
 
Some species with limited adaptive capacity, particularly in the Arctic and coral reefs are already at a warming of two degrees compared to current climate at risk (page 29).
 
In technical chapter of the Air report, however, is this:
 
Work since the last Air Report 2007 have the ability of climate models challenged to predict the future risk of extinction; the uncertainties have become clearer. The results of the models vary widely, and they are difficult to verify. The uncertainties could be larger than shown in models because essential factors are not considered (page 295, 299, 300). 
 
During the last Air 2007 report still predicted that at a global warming of two to three degrees since the beginning of industrialization threatened with extinction 20 to 30 percent of animal and plant, 

the new climate report makes no concrete predictions more -

the uncertainties are too large ( page 299/300). The course does not clear, it has simply indicate a significant lack of knowledge.
 
The synthesis report is to extinct species: 
Numerous species have shifted their ranges, and seasonal activities due to climate change. However: Only in a few species extinction, climate change could have played a role so far (page 14). 
 
In technical chapter of the Air report, however, is this:
 
There is low confidence in the conclusions that already some species could become extinct due to climate change, so may the disappearance of Central American amphibians (page 300).  

However, just became known: a supposedly extinct by climate change worm has resurfaced. The generally higher rate of extinction of species in recent decades has other reasons than climate change: as agriculture, deforestation, hunting and fishing (page 295/300).
 
The main climate risks:

 
The underlying state of play of climate knowledge, which is summarized on Sunday with the synthesis report, nevertheless remains worrying. The greatest climate risks are, according to the IPCC:
  • Unabated emissions of greenhouse gases would probably 0.3 to 4.8 degrees heat the air by the end of the century - depending on how much greenhouse gas is still blown into the air and how much water vapor, clouds and affect other factors.
  • It threatens more heat waves. In large cities, heat stress could be propagated to the problem.
  • Rising sea levels could go on for centuries. By the end of this century was a risk of swelling around 26-82 centimeters, depending on how much greenhouse gas warms the world, the IPCC warns.
  • Many glaciers that serve as drinking water sources, could completely disappear. The sea ice in the Arctic threaten substantial losses.
  • The oceans threaten to become acidic, organisms would schwererfallen to form their shells.
  • Climates may shift. In the subtropics and adjacent regions such as the Mediterranean, therefore, there should be some places frequent droughts.
  • In the tropics and mid-latitudes, such as Germany, there would be more heavy rain - a problem especially for large cities with poor drainage and villages along rivers.

 
The IPCC scenarios on the following topics are subject to extreme uncertainty :
  • Wars and refugees
  • Nutrition and harvest .
  • Health
  • Economic Development"
"Author's Note: The information on the page numbers from the climate report were subsequently added to make the statements easier to understand." via No Tricks Zone, via Climate Depot

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In 2012 alone $1 billion a day was spent on the notion of CO2 induced global warming.  

Real problems were left to starve.



 

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