News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Monday, December 7, 2015

Trump leads Republican field by 12 points in latest IBD TIPP national poll, 11/30-12/4/15. Strongest Trump support is in Northeast where 35% back him-IBD

Trump 27
Carson 15
Rubio 14
Cruz 13
Bush 3 
Fiorina 3

Poll dates, 11/30-12/4/15, 394 Republicans and R-leaners, live telephone interviews on land lines and cell phones, error margin 5%. No link to actual poll.

12/7/15, "Trump Holds Firm; Cruz, Rubio, Carson Vie For 2nd: Poll," Investors Business Daily, John Merline

"With less than two months to go before the primary season officially begins, Donald Trump's lead is holding steady, while support for Ben Carson has tumbled, creating a virtual three-way tie for second, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Poll.

Among Republicans and Republican leaners, 27% back Trump, down a point from last month.

Just 15% now back Carson, a substantial drop from last month's 23%. Carson's support has been driven down by attacks on his claims about his actions as a youth and his fumbling of foreign policy questions.

Carson is now statistically tied with rising contenders Marco Rubio (at 14%, up from 11%), and Ted Cruz (at 13%, up from 6%).

Jeb Bush is now at a mere 3%, tied with Carly Fiorina. The survey of 394 Republicans/leaners has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points....

Regionally, Trump's strongest support is in the Northeast, where 35% back him. Rubio's best performance is in the West, where he gets 19% support, and Cruz and Carson both do best in the South, at 19%....

And 44% of Trump backers are in "job sensitive" households, meaning that they or someone in their family are either looking for work or worried about losing their jobs. That's higher than any GOP rival's supporters and well above the overall figure of 36%....

Trump's support is much stronger among less-educated and lower-income Republicans and Republican leaners. The poll found that 35% of those with just a high school education, and 34% of those making less than $30,000, back Trump."...

The nationwide survey of 901 adults was conducted by live interviewers from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4 using both cell phones and landlines. The overall margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points."...

Image caption: 12/5/15, "Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Davenport, Iowa, on Saturday (12/5). Regionally, Trump's strongest support remains in the Northeast, where 35% back him." photo via IBD



Comment: For IBD's information, Americans with "just a high school education" comprise about 70% of the American electorate, per Politifact. A candidate who appealed "just" to non-degree voters nationally could win in landslide since potential voters without college degrees greatly outnumber those with degrees. Pathetic Romney, for example, lost the GOP must-win state of Ohio due to his inability to connect with white working class voters, per Sept. 2012 AP report.

April 2015 Politifact article: 

4/8/15, "70% of Americans don't have college degree, Rick Santorum says," Politifact, Katharina Fiedler

"In making the point that Republicans need to reach out to the working class more, Santorum said that 70 percent of Americans don’t have a college degree. We found several measures that are close to the number Santorum cited. Overall, we rate his claim True."


9/25/2012 AP article:
Romney failed to connect with white, working-class voters in GOP must-win state of Ohio:

9/25/2012, "Romney, Obama zero in on Ohio, a GOP must-win," by Charles Babington and Kasie Hunt, Vandalia, Ohio

"Romney is scrambling to reverse the polls that show Obama ahead....But he's having mixed success with his chief target: white, working-class voters who are socially conservative and often have union backgrounds. A generation ago they were called "Reagan Democrats."...He is having trouble connecting with middle-class Ohioans....

Romney campaign political director Rich Beeson [hired by Rubio in 2015] told reporters Tuesday that Romney's campaign has 40 offices in Ohio to Obama's 100, but he said Republicans are keeping pace."...

Ohio 2012: Romney vs Obama

Final popular vote in Ohio 2012: Obama, 2,827,621. Romney: 2,661,407


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