News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Trump edges Cruz in Iowa Public Policy Poll, Dec. 10-13, 2015. Trump supporters place higher priority on beating a Democrat in 2016: 31% to 20% each for Cruz and Rubio. 78% support temporary ban on Muslims entering US

Trump 28
Cruz 25
Rubio 14
Carson 10
Bush 7 
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2
Paul 2
Graham 1
Santorum 1

Poll dates Dec. 10-13, 2015. 522 usual Iowa Republican primary voters, 80% telephone, 20% without landlines surveyed via internet. 4.3 error margin.

PPP likes to have fun, this time includes FDR internment camps in its headline:

12/15/15, "Trump Edges Cruz in Iowa; His Supporters Think Japanese Internment Was Good; Clinton Still Well Ahead," Public Policy Polling, Tom Jensen

"PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Donald Trump and Ted Cruz at the top of the heap with 28% and 25% respectively. Marco Rubio at 14% and Ben Carson at 10% are also in double digits with Jeb Bush at 7% the only other candidate who clears even 3%. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee all hit that level with John Kasich and Rand Paul each getting 2%, Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum each getting 1%, and Jim Gilmore and George Pataki both having literally no support.

Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush have all seen varying increases in their support in the six weeks since we last polled Iowa. Cruz obviously has the most momentum, picking up 11 points from his 14% standing in early November. Trump has gained 6 points, Rubio 4 points, and Bush 2 points.

“Ted Cruz’s momentum in Iowa is getting all the attention,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Donald Trump is on the up swing there as well."

As we’ve been finding across the country for the last month Carson has seen the most serious downward arc in his support, dropping 11 points from his previous 21% standing. Huckabee’s dropped 3 points and Fiorina by 2 points as well.

There are a lot of divisions between where Cruz and Trump’s support is coming from. Among voters whose biggest concern is having a candidate who’s conservative on the issues Cruz leads with 33% to 26% for Trump and 15% for Carson. But with voters whose biggest concern is being able to beat a Democrat in the general election, Trump wins out with 31% to 20% each for Cruz and Rubio. Cruz leads Trump 31/30 with men, but Trump more than makes up for that with a 26/17 lead among women. Cruz has a strong advantage with ‘very conservative’ voters at 37% to 25% for Trump and 14% for Carson but Trump leads based on his strength with moderates, with whom gets 42% to 14% each for Rubio and Bush.

It’s ironic that Trump leads with moderates, because the views of his supporters wouldn’t be considered moderate by most standards:

-78% support Trump’s call to bans Muslims from entering the United States, to only 13% who oppose it. Overall 54% of Republicans support him on that to 28% who are opposed. Supporters of Cruz (62/20) and Carson (54/25) also favor a Muslim ban while backers of Rubio (28/48) and Bush (28/49) are opposed.

-65% of Trump voters think thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered the collapse of the World Trade Center, to only 11% who don’t think that happened. Overall 43% of Republicans think that event occurred to 29% who don’t. Supporters of Carson (44/10) and Cruz (45/26) agree with Trump’s that it happened while those of Rubio (24/47) and Bush (12/62) say it didn’t....

-45% of Trump voters want to shut down the mosques in the United States, to only 23% who are opposed to doing that. Overall just 27% of Republicans support that to 45% who are opposed though. Supporters of all the other major GOP candidates are opposed to shutting down mosques- it’s 32/48 with Carson backers, 25/44 with those of Cruz, 9/66 with Rubio voters, and 9/69 with Bush’s.

-Finally as long as we were at it we decided we’d ask people if they thought Japanese internment had been a good idea. Among Trump voters 48% say they support the use of internment during World War II, to only 21% who say they oppose it. Overall just 29% of Republicans support that to 39% opposed, and supporters of all the other candidates are against it- 29/33 with Cruz voters, 23/54 with Rubio’s, 12/48 with Carson’s, and 13/56 with Bush’s.

Quick notes on some other hopefuls:  

-Bush has the highest negatives of any of the candidates with 47% seeing him unfavorably to only 35% who have a positive view. He continues to particularly have a credibility issue on the right- with ‘very conservative’ voters his favorability is 24/61 and just 2% of voters within that group favor him for the nomination.

-What we’re continuing to find with Rubio right now is that he’s sort of in a holding pattern. When we polled Iowa last month he was in 4th place with a 60/20 favorability rating. Now thanks to the collapse of Carson he’s in 3rd place with a nearly identical 59/22 favorability. He’s not getting much momentum but he’s at least not falling apart either.

-Carson’s not just losing out on people saying he’s their first choice- he’s had a general decline in his image with GOP voters. Last month he had a +61 (74/13) favorability, that’s now dropped to +40 at 63/23....

-John Kasich’s just really not making an impact. A plurality of GOP voters- 41%- don’t even have an opinion about him one way or the other. Among voters who do have one it’s quite negative with only 22% seeing him favorably to 37% with a negative view.

-Mike Huckabee on the other hand is very popular with the Republican base....That goodwill just isn’t translating into support for the nomination for him though.... 

Public Policy Polling surveyed 526 usual Democratic primary voters and 522 usual Republican primary voters from December 10th to 13th. The margin of error for both parties is +/-4.3%. 80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet."

"Posted by: Sting McCoy | December 15, 2015 at 11:36 AM" 

"Literally none of the things that you're calling conservative are conservative. National Security isn't a liberal/conservative issue. Responding terrorism isn't a liberal/conservative issue. Your using internment is an example of my point. It was done by the most famous Liberal Democrat of the last century.

Cruz is clearly far right of Trump. The voters in your poll recognize that.

Last but not least: It would probably be best going forward if you used the term internment in the headline for Democrat Polls. They're the party that believed in bypassing Congress
and jailing Japanese Americans."


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