News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Donald Trump takes huge lead in latest Iowa poll, double nearest competitor in Republican field, July 29, 2015 Gravis Poll

Gravis poll conducted Wed., July 29, using interactive voice response technology.

7/31/15, "Trump and Clinton Lead Latest One America News Network National Poll," prnewswire, advfn.com













"One America News Network, "OAN", a credible source for 24/7 national and international news, released today its most recent 2016 Republican and Democratic Presidential National Poll results conducted by Gravis Marketing. The poll results show that GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump has a significant lead with 30.8 support among Republicans. Presidential Candidate Jeb Bush comes in second with 13.3%, trailing Trump by a margin of 17.5%. Scott Walker earned the third spot, receiving 12.5% followed by Ben Carson with 6.1%. Mike Huckabee rounds out the top five with 5.6%....

The polls were conducted on July 29th using interactive voice response, IVR, technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. The poll was conducted exclusively for One America News Network. See www.oann.com/pollnational."


Image above from, "Iowa Polling Results," One America News Network, 7/31/15.

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Margin of error 6.5% for Republican caucus, 6.4% for Democrat caucus. 227 registered Republicans planning to vote in the caucus sampled:

7/31/15, "Iowa Polling Results," One America News Network
 
"Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 670 registered voters in Iowa regarding the presidential election. The sample includes 227 Republican Caucus participants, 236 Democratic Caucus participants, and 207 planning to vote in 2016, but will not participate in the primary elections. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3.8% [6.5% for Republican Caucus/6.4% for Democratic Caucus]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. The poll was conducted for One American News Network....

Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan research firm headquartered in Florida. Gravis Marketing is the recipient of the 2013 American Association of Political Consultants award for 2012 Presidential Primary domestic and international phone calls."
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Scott Walker "a distant second:"

7/31/15, "Walker trails in first Iowa poll since April, Trump in the lead," wxow.com, Madison, Wisc.

"For the first time in more than three months, Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wisconsin) is trailing in a poll of likely Republican Iowa caucus voters.

Donald Trump has surged into the lead in a new Gravis Marketing poll with support from 31 percent of those surveyed. Walker is a distant second at 15 percent, with Jeb Bush in third place at 10 percent.

Governor Walker has spent more time campaigning in Iowa than any other state since January and has been in the in the lead there in every poll since mid-April.

In the last poll Gravis conducted in Iowa May 28-29, Gov. Walker was at 17 percent, leading the rest of the GOP field by 4 points. But in that poll, Trump was polling at zero percent."


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Scott Walker again says he'll skip Florida GOP primary, having in May 2015 suggested he'd to so "in deference to" Bush and Rubio:

7/28/15, "Walker Tells Private Group He'll Skip Florida Primary," Real Clear Politics, Rebecca Berg

"Scott Walker has insisted he will be able to “compete anywhere in the country” as a candidate for president — but, at a private event in St. Louis on Sunday, Walker said he does not plan to compete in Florida, contradicting his own public assertions that he would not skip that primary. During a fundraiser at the St. Louis home of Rex Sinquefield, Missouri’s most active Republican donor, Walker reasoned that itdoesn't make a ton of sense for him to pour cash into Floridawith Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in the race, said one person who was present for Walker’s remarks. Bush is a former Florida governor, and Rubio is a senator from Florida....

A second person who was present confirmed that Walker said it would not make sense for him to try to compete in Florida with Rubio and Bush in the race.

Walker also predicted that the Republican primary contest could extend into April, the first person said, which would make any one primary, even in a large state such as Florida, less important to Walker’s overall strategy.

This rundown of Walker’s campaign strategy, which he shared with a closed-door audience of Missouri elected officials and Republican donors, marks a departure from how he has framed his path to the Republican nomination in public, particularly in regards to Florida.

In a May interview with radio host Laura Ingraham, Walker made headlines when he suggested that he might pass over the Florida primary, one of the first winner-take-all contests, because the home-field advantage for Bush and Rubio would be too strong.


"I don't think there's a state out there we wouldn't play in, other than maybe Florida, where Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are...essentially tied," he said.

But Walker later attempted to walk back that remark, telling reporters during a trip to Florida in June: "If I didn't think I could compete, I wouldn't be here today.”

His comments to Ingraham, Walker added, were merely “in deference to two favorite sons here in Florida,” the New York Times reported. “And I thought that Gov. Bush and Sen. Rubio certainly would have a competitive advantage over anybody because of their presence as favorite sons in this state and having won statewide elections.”

In a statement to RealClearPolitics on Tuesday, Walker’s campaign echoed those remarks by Walker in June, insisting he intends to “play everywhere."


“The governor is going to play everywhere as evidenced by his travel to 11 states since becoming a candidate,” said AshLee Strong, a spokeswoman for Walker. "We have long said Gov. Walker has appeal with voters of all kinds across all states, but we have also acknowledged the obvious that there are two Floridians in the race.""...





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