News that doesn't receive the necessary attention.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Sixteen years into global warming pause which no UN IPCC climate models predicted, Nature Magazine, Jan. 2014

1/15/14, "Climate change: The case of the missing heat," Nature, Jeff Tollefson

"Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation."

"Simulations conducted in advance of the 2013–14 assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that the warming should have continued at an average rate of 0.21 °C per decade from 1998 to 2012 . Instead, the observed warming during that period was just 0.04 °C per decade, as measured by the UK Met Office in Exeter and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK....

But none of the climate simulations carried out for the IPCC produced this particular hiatus at this particular time."... 

US government scientists put a 15 year limit on climate prediction methods:

7 May, 2009
“No upward trend…has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried,” Dr. Phil Jones – CRU emails. - See more at:
NOAA "State of the Climate in 2008," released in August 2009, stated a 15 year lack of warming is the point at which prediction models have failed. The following text appears in the middle column on page 23: 

p. 23, "Near-zero and even negative trends are common  
for intervals of a decade or less
in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability.

The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends  
for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of  this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate."


On 7/28/09, Roger Pielke, Jr. praised NOAA:
“Kudos to NOAA for being among the first to explicitly state what sort of observation would be inconsistent with model predictions — 15 years of no warming.”

Der Spiegel notes US scientists state 15 year limit on climate predictions:

1/18/13,Climate change: scientists puzzle over halt in global warming, Der Spiegel, by Axel Bojanowski (translation from German)

"NASA researchers prove that the temperature rise makes a break for 15 years....Climate has recently developed differently than predicted: For 15 years, the increased heating, the upward trend in the average global temperature has not continued since 1998. "The stoppage has led to the assumption that global warming had stopped," admits a Nasa....NASA has said if no warming happened for 15 years, it would show a problem with forecasts:...Until now scientists thought fourteen years without further warming were to bring into line with their forecasts - but not "15 years or more," as NASA researchers in the journal "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society" four years ago."...  


Der Spiegel notes "renowned scientist" May 7, 2009 email that 15 years would be the limit on climate predictions:

1/18/13, Climate change: scientists puzzle over halt in global warming,” Der Spiegel, by Axel Bojanowski (translation from German)

"A renowned scientist wrote on 7 May, 2009 an e-mail
to colleagues, as the heating pause had lasted eleven years:
"The non-upward trend [of temperatures] would take 15 years before we have to worry us [our results]."
15 years without warming the air near the ground are now over. The stoppage of the average temperature shows that the uncertainties of climate predictions are surprisingly large."...subhead, "IPCC Meets"


Phil Jones "renowned scientist" May 7, 2009 email on 15 year limit on climate predictions:

7/25/13, "Scientists talking about no warming," Australia Herald Sun, Andrew Bolt

"May 7, 2009, "Bottom line: The 'no upward trend'...has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried," Dr. Phil Jones, CRU emails."...


In 2014 US scientist suggests 50-100 years for climate focus:

1/15/14, "Climate change: The case of the missing heat," Nature, Jeff Tollefson

"Your main focus ought to be on timescales of 50 to 100 years,says Susan Solomon, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge."...subhead, "Stark Contrast," parag. 3


1/18/14, "No one interviewed for the Nature article claimed the hiatus in surface warming was not happening."...Bob Tisdale, WUWT


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